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Messi’s playoff defeat is an upset for MLS of Apple TV’s own making
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Messi’s playoff defeat is an upset for MLS of Apple TV’s own making

When Major League Soccer first introduced the cumbersome new MLS Cup Playoff format, the league emphasized that one of the benefits would be placing more importance on the order of the regular season.

The league had conducted simulations, it said, showing that playing a best-of-three Round One series would be more likely to favor the higher-seeded team than a single-elimination match played at the higher-seeded team’s stadium team was played.

The math always seemed vague as the new format also removed extra time and required every match to be decided on penalties after 90 minutes.

But even if it were true, it was clearly an additional reason for the change. The main driver was of course money, with 16 owners in particular getting ticket revenue from at least one home game per season, and Apple TV marketing between 25 and 33 playoff games annually for its MLS Season Pass subscription service (compared to just 13 in the previous format.)

21 months later, it appears that Apple TV and MLS have sacrificed the forest for the trees. Because if the play-offs go ahead later in November, they will do so without Lionel Messi and Inter Miami, precisely because of the new format they have introduced.

Messi and Miami were defeated 3-2 at home by Atlanta United on Saturday night in what was perhaps the biggest upset in MLS Cup history.

According to the bookmakers, the Herons had started the match as around 1 in 3 favorites on the moneyline, and could have gone through with a draw via penalties. And yet, the combination of exceptional goalkeeping from Brad Guzan, a devastating three-minute spell from Atlanta forward Jamal Thiare and one of the more controversial game-winners in the league’s history gave Atlanta a spot in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

If this had been 2022, Miami would have already bowed out of those semifinals as the top seed. And if MLS had merely expanded the playoffs but kept the single-elimination format, Miami would have advanced via their 2-1 victory in the series opener.

Instead, the league’s continued push for competitive structures that prioritize revenue over integrity has ultimately hurt both sides of the equation. And perhaps that’s the overarching lesson Commissioner Don Garber, his owners and Apple TV need to learn from this disappointing season.

Messi’s play-off exit is not the only example. Last winter, the league’s attempt to jettison its US Open Cup obligations resulted in unnecessary black eyes in the press and among its own fans.

And the continued insistence on playing the Leagues Cup as a month-long tournament from late July through late August forced MLS to play the toughest June schedule in recent history in the near anonymity of the shadow cast by the Copa America of 2024 throws.

Perhaps none of these episodes will have a major measurable impact on short-term outcomes. But if the owners’ goal is anything other than artificially inflating the value of their own clubs in the very short term at the expense of their longer-term health, they are extremely baffled.

It is to the credit of the MLS that there is recognition that this approach to decision-making is counterproductive. The possible adjustment to a fall-to-spring schedule after the 2026 World Cup – which could hurt ticket revenue but produce a much better product – is a positive development. That could also be possible the rumor consideration from a change from the Leagues Cup format to a midweek tournament modeled on the UEFA Champions League.

However, that is all for the future. For now, 2024 will be the year that MLS and Apple TV did everything they could to make the MLS regular season less relevant, only for Messi and Miami to do their best work in the league that MLS cared about least.