Two of the best teams in the Western Conference meet on Sunday when the Golden State Warriors travel to Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

With Oklahoma City having one of the best defenses in the NBA, Golden State’s biggest star could be in for a tough matchup.

I expect Stephen Curry to struggle in my Warriors vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, November 10.

Warriors vs Thunder prediction

My best choice
Stephen Curry Less than 23.5 points (-105 at bet365)

My analysis

Stephen Curry is coming off his least productive game of the season and that may continue against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Friday night against the undefeated Cleveland Cavaliers, Curry scored just 12 points in a 19-point loss. While the Cavs are the best team in the league, the Thunder aren’t far behind and I expect Curry to have another less effective game.

In six games this season, he has finished with fewer than 23.5 points four times and is averaging his fewest points per game (19.7) since his third season in the NBA in 2011. Could Curry finally be taking a step back ?

It’s not so much a bad game as it is fewer minutes of Steve Kerr trying to keep his 36-year-old, 10-time All-Star fresh. Curry is playing a career-high 26.8 minutes per game and has played just 28 minutes in one appearance this season.

As a result, he is making more than three fewer threes per game this season (8.2) than last season (11.8) and more than five fewer field goals: 13.8 this season versus 19.5 last season.

So between his decreased minutes usage and decreased consumption, it’s no surprise that his production drops off early in the season. Now factor in his opponent on Sunday night, and I’m having a hard time understanding why his point total is set at 23.5.

Oklahoma City allows the fewest points per game in the NBA (100.2) and has the No. 1 defensive rating (97.2). It will also be difficult for Curry to go deep against this defense.

The Thunder allow the second-fewest threes per game in the league (11.3) and the lowest 3-point percentage (30.9%). And it’s not like things are getting any easier inside the arc now that OKC is allowing the fewest twos per game (24.1) and the lowest 2-point percentage (47.3%).

With Curry taking on a smaller role and the Thunder’s relentless defense, it’s hard to predict he’ll score more than 24 points.

Warriors vs Thunder parlay in the same game

Curry Under 23.5 points

Holmgren Over 9.5 rebounds

Williams Over 1.5 steals

Oklahoma City has become one of the best teams in the league thanks to its blossoming young talent. The Thunders’ main young star is Chet Holmgren.

The 22-year-old has looked even better in his second season, leading the team in rebounds with 9.2 per game. Although he only managed a 9.5 grade in four of nine games, the Warriors are a perfect team to throw his stats against.

Golden State allows the sixth-most rebounds per game in the NBA (46.0) and the third-most rebounds per game (18.06). And he isn’t the only Oklahoma City player from the 2022 NBA Draft who is poised to shine.

Jalen Williams is third in the league in steals per game (2.0) and has had at least two in six of his last seven games. His strong defensive play should continue against the Warriors

Learn how to parlay on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs. Thunder Odds

Warriors vs Thunder live odds

Warriors vs Thunder opening odds

• Spread: Warriors +7.5 | Thunder -7.5
• Moneyline: Warriors +245 | Thunder -305
• Top/Bottom: Over 227.5 | Below 227.5

Odds courtesy of bet365

Warriors vs Thunder spread and over/under analysis

• Oklahoma City opened as a 7.5-point favorite, with most sportsbooks moving down to offer the Thunder at -6.5 or -7.
• Mark Daigneault and Steve Kerr’s teams are among the top ATS with both Oklahoma City and Golden State going 7-2.
• The Over/Under opened between 226.5 and 227.5 and has since risen between 228 and 228.5.
• The Warriors are one of the best Over bets in the NBA at 6-3, but Oklahoma City is one of the worst at 4-5.

Warriors vs Thunder trend

The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the spread in 53 of their last 92 games (+11.20 units / 11% ROI). Discover more NBA betting odds for Warriors vs. Thunder.

How to watch Warriors vs Thunder

Warriors vs Thunder latest injuries

Pages related to this topic