• RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans — over 18.5 carries: Since returning from injury in Week 6, the veteran back has seen significant volume and leads the NFL with 87 carries over the past four games. This heavy workload has fueled Joe Mixon’s streak of four straight games with over 100 rushing yards.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Game overview

Sunday Night Football sets up a high-profile cross-conference showdown between the NFC favorite Detroit Lions and the AFC South’s dominant leaders, the Houston Texans.

While Houston has a strong 6-3 record, their 3-6 mark against the spread was less impressive for bettors. The Texans started the season with four straight missed covers, rebounded with three straight wins and then stumbled with two more missed covers, leaving them at their current ATS record.

Injuries to key playmakers and pass protection issues have limited the Texans’ passing efficiency. As of Week 7, Houston ranks last in pressure percentage allowed (46.1%) and among the bottom three in both knockdown percentage (13.9%) and pass-block efficiency rating (73.9) .

Despite loss Aidan Hutchinson Due to injuries, the Lions have managed to maintain a solid pass rush. Through the three games without Hutchinson, Detroit’s defense ranks 11th in pressure percentage (35.4%). The recent trade for edge rusher Za’Darius Smith could strengthen this unit, although it is uncertain whether he will play this week. If not, the pressure will rely on players like the interior lineman Alim McNeillwhich registered seven pressures in week 9.

News over the last week indicated that the Texans were holding a players-only meeting to address recent issues following their second loss in three games. Improving pass protection is critical for this team, but they can also benefit from the potential return of WR Nico Collinswho has been designated to return but remains questionable for the match.

Before his injury in Week 5, Collins was in top form, averaging 3.50 yards per route and posting a league-best PFF grade of 92.4. Since the start of the 2023 season, his grade of 92.7 is the highest among all NFL receivers, highlighting his game-changing impact.

Houston needs a player of Collins’ caliber to keep up with the Lions, who have been dominant on both sides of the ball. Detroit is the only team in the league to rank in the top eight in both offensive EPA per play and defensive EPA per play allowed, making them one of the most balanced and formidable teams this season.

RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans: More than 18.5 carries (-121)

Given the issues with Houston’s passing game, especially in pass protection, establishing a presence on the ground has proven to be essential in preventing defenses from turning their ears back and rushing the passer.

Enter Joe Mixonwho has carried the workload well during his time on the field. Since returning from injury in Week 6, the veteran back has seen significant volume and leads the NFL with 87 carries over the past four games. This heavy workload has fueled Joe Mixon‘s streak of four consecutive games with more than 100 rushing yards.

If Houston fails to establish an effective run game, there is a risk that Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and his offense will have too many opportunities to build a lead. While Detroit’s defense has been strong overall, it has proven vulnerable against the run, ranking 19th in EPA allowed per rush and 27th in yards allowed per carry (4.8).

Exploiting this weakness could be crucial for the Texans to keep pace and control the clock against a Lions team that thrives on both sides of the ball.