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How the 2024 exit polls compare to the 2020 and 2016 elections
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How the 2024 exit polls compare to the 2020 and 2016 elections

President Donald Trump is expected to become president for a second time in a historic comeback. There are some important insights into how the country’s politics have changed during three consecutive elections with Trump on the ballot.

CNN’s 2016, 2020 and 2024 exit poll results show how a sour economy held Vice President Kamala Harris back, and how she failed to increase support among women even though there was a rise in support for abortion rights, and how Latino men in particular were attracted to Trump.

CNN’s exit polls for the 2024 general election include interviews with thousands of voters, both those who cast ballots on Election Day and those who voted early or absentee. That scope makes them a powerful tool for understanding the demographic profile and political views of voters in this year’s elections. And their findings will ultimately be weighed against the ultimate benchmark: the results of the election itself. Yet exit polls are still polls, with a margin for error, meaning they are most useful when treated as estimates, not precise measurements. This is especially true before the exit poll figures are adjusted to the final election results.

The 2024 exit poll data is continuously updated and is automatically displayed in the graphs below.

Women lean toward Harris, and men lean toward Trump

  • Voted Democrat
  • Voted for Trump

Gender

Harris’ lead among women this year did not surpass that of President Joe Biden or former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a troubling sign for the vice president as she seeks to mobilize female voters on the issue of abortion. Trump maintained a lead among men.

Latino men hugged Trump

  • Voted Democrat
  • Voted for Trump

Race/ethnicity and gender

Latino voters, and men in particular, have been moving toward Trump since 2016. This year, for the first time, Latino men broke in his direction. Biden won their support by 23 points in 2020 and Trump won them in 2024. Latina women still favored Harris, but by smaller margins than they supported Clinton or Biden.

Harris maintained strong leads among black men and women. Trump’s lead among white men shrank.

The education gap is growing

  • Voted Democrat
  • Voted for Trump

Education, race and gender

White voters without a college degree have long represented Trump’s support, something that has remained constant. There has been a shift among white, college-educated voters. They narrowly supported Trump in 2016, but Harris won them in 2024, a split driven by both men and women. Harris won by about 15 points over white women with college degrees — an improvement over both Biden and Clinton. Meanwhile, Harris lost some support among voters of color of all education levels.

Younger voters shifted to Trump as he lost ground to senior voters

  • Voted Democrat
  • Voted for Trump

Age

Democrats lost some support among the youngest voters, a group that voted for them overwhelmingly. But Harris also made gains among the oldest voters, a group that traditionally leans Republican. It’s an interesting shift.

Trump regained power in rural America

  • Voted Democrat
  • Voted for Trump

Where voters live

Although Trump lost some support in rural areas in 2020, he returned there in full force in 2024. Cities remained solidly democratic. The suburbs remained the evenly divided battleground that decided the elections.

Voters are sour about the economy

  • Voted Democrat
  • Voted for Trump

View on the economy

Voters in 2020 were about evenly split on whether the economy was in good shape or not, something incredible considering the raging pandemic that impacted Americans’ lives that year. In 2024, about two-thirds of voters said the economy was in bad shape. That shift in sentiment benefited Trump.

More and more people are reporting that their families have fallen behind

  • Voted Democrat
  • Voted for Trump

The family’s financial situation today

It makes sense that partisans would say their position has or has not improved depending on whether the person they support is in the White House. This year there is a big shift. In 2020, only about a fifth of voters said they were doing worse than four years earlier. This year, nearly half of voters say they are doing worse than four years ago. Trump won them overwhelmingly.

More and more Americans support abortion rights

  • Voted Democrat
  • Voted for Trump

Abortion should be:

One story these graphs don’t fully tell is how the conversation about abortion has changed. In 2016, Roe v. Wade guaranteed every American woman a constitutional right to an abortion. In 2024, that federal right will be gone, taken away by a conservative majority that helped Trump sit on the Supreme Court. In 2020, about half of Americans said abortion should be legal in all or most cases. By 2024, about two-thirds of Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases. But they did not necessarily link that support to their vote for president. About half of people who believe abortion should be legal in most cases supported Trump.

Trump reached the moderates

  • Voted Democrat
  • Voted for Trump

Ideology

Liberals and conservatives have retreated even further into their partisan corners during the Trump years. Moderates still favored the Democratic candidate in 2024, but by a smaller margin than in 2020.

Trump is the dominant figure in the elections

  • Voted Democrat
  • Voted for Trump

Please vote for the president:

People who say they cast their votes more in favor of their chosen candidate than against their opponent are divided on Trump, a signal of his popularity among his supporters. Those more motivated by opposition were largely in Harris’ camp. Overall, about three-quarters of voters said they voted mainly to support their candidate, not to oppose their rival.

Trump has attracted new voters

  • Voted Democrat
  • Voted for Trump

Freshman voters

Trump’s campaign strategy was built around motivating low-propensity voters who typically do not participate in the political process. That paid off, as there was a dramatic change between 2020, when Biden won freshman voters, and 2024, when Trump won them. But there is important context in the fact that a smaller share of voters said they would cast their first vote in 2024 than in 2020.

CNN exit polls are a combination of in-person interviews with voters on Election Day and in-person, telephone and online polls that measure the opinions of early and absentee voters by mail. They were conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. In-person interviews on Election Day were conducted at a random sample of 279 polling places. The results also include interviews with early and absentee voters conducted between October 24 and November 2, in person at 27 early voting locations, by phone or online. Results for the full sample of 22,914 respondents have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.