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    • Ole Miss is the fifth SEC team, Indiana is out
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    Ole Miss is the fifth SEC team, Indiana is out

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    • If Ole Miss follows Georgia’s win with a strong finish, it could climb the CFP seeds to a first-round host bid.
    • What happens if the final spot comes down to a two-loss SEC team or a one-loss Big Ten team? Watch out, Indiana.
    • Path for BYU, Miami becomes clear: Win your conference.

    LSU’s College Football Playoff bubble burst Saturday night, but that hardly cleared up the playoff picture.

    If anything, the CFP bracket became murkier after Miami lost its undefeated credentials and Ole Miss upset Georgia.

    For several weeks, I limited the SEC to four playoff qualifiers. Not anymore. My final projection returns to my preseason stance that the SEC will qualify for the playoffs as the top five.

    Ahead of Tuesday’s rankings update, here is my final prediction for the CFP bracket. The top four seeds would receive a first-round bye, while the teams seeded Nos. 5 through 8 would host first-round playoff games.

    1. Oregon (Big Ten)

    Dillon Gabriel kept his spot at the top of the Heisman Trophy standings by throwing three touchdown passes in Oregon’s 39-18 win over Maryland. My concern about the Ducks: They haven’t played a road game against a team currently above .500. What happens if Oregon has to leave the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium in the postseason? Last week: No. 1 seed.

    2. Alabama (SEC)

    As a logjam for the SEC standings forms, complex tiebreaker protocols may be necessary to determine one or both teams for the conference championship game. So I can’t say for certain that Alabama will reach Atlanta. The Crimson Tide are stuck with two conference losses and need help to get there. If they get there, their chances of retaining the SEC crown are good. Quarterback Jalen Milroe regained his strength, and Alabama showed no signs of its October woes as it demolished LSU. Last week: Not in the play-offs.

    A TIDE REVIVAL: Kalen DeBoer and Jalen Milroe revive the Alabama football season

    3. Brigham Young (Big 12)

    BYU spent most of its rivalry game against Utah justifying the Cougars’ initial lukewarm ranking by the CFP committee. But BYU just won’t go away. The Cougars used a late field goal to escape with a 22-21 victory, their fourth win by six points or fewer. The committee’s reluctance toward the Cougars makes their job clear: Win the Big 12, or expect to get snubbed. Last week: No. 4 seed.

    4. Miami (ACC)

    Georgia Tech showed the playbook for beating the Hurricanes in a 28-23 rout of the Hurricanes: use a ball-control offense to keep Miami’s vaunted offense on the sidelines. Georgia Tech’s pass rush confused Cam Ward, Miami’s top quarterback. Now the Hurricanes may have to win the ACC to earn qualification, but the point is, Ward is so good that more often than not he will play tight games for Miami. Last week: No. 3 seed.

    WHAT HAPPENED? Brian Kelly asks a question we’re all wondering after LSU disappeared from the playoff picture

    5. State of Ohio (overall)

    If the Buckeyes keep winning — undefeated Indiana comes to town in two weeks — and reach 11-1, they’ll earn a second crack at Oregon. Beat the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship and Ohio State could jump to No. 1. If you lose, the committee shouldn’t punish OSU much, if at all. Georgia suffered a second loss and increased OSU’s chances of earning the coveted No. 5 seed. Last week: No. 5 seed.

    6. Penn State (overall)

    The Nittany Lions will miss a signature win, but they tout a solid schedule, and an 11-1 record would help create separation among a pile of two-loss SEC teams. Moreover, the committee seems willing to award points for a “good loss”. Penn State’s seven-point loss to Ohio State does limited damage and essentially puts a shine on the resume. Last week: No. 6 seed.

    7. Notre Dame (in general)

    While other playoff contenders take body hits during conference play, the Irish are enjoying the fruits of their independence. The undefeated Army also helps Notre Dame. The Irish are going from strength to strength, and toppling the Black Knights would prompt the committee to solidify Notre Dame as first-round host. Last week: No. 8 seed.

    8. Mississippi (in general)

    Ole Miss’ big investment in defensive transfers paid off. The Rebels controlled the lines of scrimmage, crushed Georgia and revived their quest for the playoffs. While other SEC contenders risk additional losses, meek Florida and Mississippi State await Ole Miss. Blowout wins and a hot finish play well for the committee. Last week: Not in the play-offs.

    9. Georgia (in general)

    The committee may prefer not to schedule rematches of regular season games, but if the SEC stacks up the bids as I’ve outlined, the committee would likely have no choice but to schedule at least one rematch. Georgia will host Tennessee on Saturday in a game the Bulldogs can’t afford to lose. You can see from this placement that I expect Georgia to bounce back and defend its home base. Last week: No. 2 seed.

    10. Texas (in general)

    Georgia loses Texas’ damaged seeding potential. If the Bulldogs had kept winning, the Longhorns could have explained their flop against Georgia in Austin. With Georgia looking ordinary rather than invincible, Texas is in danger of slipping in seeding and perhaps even falling out of the field altogether if it suffers a second loss. Last week: No. 6 seed.

    11. Tennessee (in general)

    If the Vols lose to Georgia and the Hoosiers then lose to Ohio State, the committee could be forced to choose between two-loss Tennessee and one-loss Indiana for the final at-large bid. Backed into a corner, would the committee really ignore Tennessee’s clearly stronger schedule than Indiana’s and its victory over Alabama? Historically, the committee doesn’t love any conference as much as it loves the SEC. Last week: No. 10 seed.

    12. Boise State (Group of Five)

    Did you think Ashton would wear out Jeanty? Never! Boise State’s workhorse tailback produced 209 yards and three touchdowns in a win against Nevada. Army is eyeing Boise State for the Group of Five bid, but Boise will get the spot as long as it keeps winning. Last week: No. 12 seed.

    Why my latest projection doesn’t include Indiana

    Ole Miss beating Georgia pushes the queue of teams with credentials for mainstream consideration. Indiana looks the part of the playoff team, but the modest strength of the schedule makes it vulnerable.

    Tennessee lacks an extensive winning list, but beating Alabama remains a feather in the Vols’ cap that Indiana can’t match unless it upsets Ohio State in Columbus.

    Previously, I thought Indiana would remain positioned for a bid even if it lost to Ohio State. But if the committee has to choose between a two-loss SEC team touting a win against Alabama, or a one-loss Big Ten team touting a win against .500 Michigan, I suspect the SEC team will plunder the spot .

    Blake Toppmeyer is the national college football columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all his columns.

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