NATO has now confirmed the presence of North Korean troops in Russia.

Although rumored to have been there for several months, there is mounting evidence that up to 10,000 soldiers, accompanied by senior staff – including three generals – have traveled from North Korea to the Russian-occupied part of Kursk and will soon see combat operations .

Here’s what you need to know about the presence of these forces in the conflict zone and why North Korea is joining Russia’s war.

Inexperienced troops who still have a lot to learn

While there is no denying the toughness and strength of an individual North Korean soldier, there is no one in the North Korean armed forces who has had any experience fighting a mechanized conflict using 21st century weapons.

Drones, sensors and constant surveillance of the battlefield will mingle with the old and proven tactics of combined arms warfare, trench clearing and the use of long-range precision artillery.

This will be crucial for North Korea if it wants to wage a successful war against South Korea.

As he watches the war rage on in Ukraine, it has become very clear to Kim Jong Un what happens to troops who are ill-prepared or inexperienced.

The new units arrived in Russia without any equipment, so they will have to learn how to use the Russian models. This isn’t much of a problem here, as both countries use weapons from the Soviet Union.

What will prove challenging is the lack of Korean speakers in the Russian military and Russian speakers in the North Korean military, making command and control a problem.

Furthermore, fighting a modern war where drones constantly monitor the battlefield can quickly lead to mass casualties of units caught in the open.

Urban fighting through devastated towns and cities requires a high level of training and coordination – not easy in a contested environment where casualty rates are typically high.

There is much to gain for North Korea, assuming some survive the conflict.

North Korean gains

The reclusive communist state has had several bad harvests in a row and the food supply is scarce. There is also a shortage of money that can be used on the black market because circumventing international sanctions is expensive.

Russia can help, reportedly paying up to $2,000 per soldier. The two countries have increasingly close military ties and recently signed a defense pact.

North Korea has supplied Russia with large quantities of 122mm and 152mm artillery ammunition, as well as mortar shells and rockets for Russia’s rocket artillery systems.

North Korean missiles have been deployed against Ukraine. The quality of all this military equipment was low, with captured ammunition supplies sometimes falling short four out of five times.

Russia can provide technical advisors to improve industrial quality and production. Russia’s need for ammunition is virtually limitless and both Russia and Ukraine have realized that a steady supply is crucial if they want to continue the war.

Russia can help the North’s fledgling space program by modernizing its satellites and the rockets that deliver them.

North Korea also gains something invaluable it doesn’t have: combat experience in modern war.

But what does Russia get from the deployment?

The Russian gains

Russia has spent enormous amounts of money countering the Ukrainian offensive against Kursk and the advance towards Donetsk. It has managed to contain Ukraine in southern Russia and is advancing in Donetsk, with Pokrovsk struggling to fend off continued Russian attacks on the Ukrainian city.

All this has entailed high costs.

An estimated 80,000 soldiers were killed or injured in these operations. That’s roughly 1,200 casualties per day, unsustainable losses, even for Russia.

An injection of troops could be just what Russia needs as its depleted forces are near depletion after a months-long offensive.

How will the Russians use these new troops?

Possibly through frontal attacks with human waves, as they have done in the past with their own units.

Soldiers lacking combat experience are better suited in defensive positions, freeing up more experienced troops, well-trained Marines and paratroopers for offensive operations to retake Russian territory held by Ukraine.

It is for this purpose that Russia has gathered infantry, artillery and tanks in Kursk, as a new counter-offensive is about to take place.

What impact will this have on the course of the war?

The consequences will be near and far.

There are two questions here: first, what impact will a successful Russian operation in Kursk have on the war; and second, what effect will North Korea’s role have in this?

Ukraine attacked and invaded Russia in a lightning move in the summer, surprising the defenders and quickly capturing lightly occupied Russian towns and villages.

Russia reluctantly moved troops from Donetsk and reinforced them with units from the Pacific Fleets and elsewhere in Russia, ultimately slowing and halting Ukraine’s advance.

Now these units are in place and ready.

If Russia succeeds in pushing Ukrainian forces back to the border, Ukraine will lose an important bargaining chip in the eventual peace negotiations.

It will also free up tens of thousands of Russian soldiers to fight in Donetsk, the focal point of the entire war, giving Russia a much greater chance of capturing the entire oblast, or province.

North Korea recently ratified the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Russia signed in June.

The treaty is now in force and contains a clause on mutual assistance if either side is attacked. Ukraine’s invasion of Russian territory falls under this definition.

What is Ukraine concerned about?

Ukraine’s concern, and that of NATO, is that the first few thousand North Korean troops in Kursk will be the first of many to come.

If Russia escalates by allowing large numbers of foreign troops into the conflict, what will stop NATO countries from voluntarily deploying their own units to fight on behalf of Ukraine?

While small numbers of foreign volunteers are already fighting on both sides, joining the conflict would be an entirely different matter for NATO-sanctioned forces, putting NATO and Russian forces in direct contact with each other.

This would dramatically expand the scope of the conflict, with the attendant risk of formally drawing NATO and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led alliance of post-Soviet countries, into the war.

Russia has chosen to bring North Korean soldiers into the fight, a few thousand so far, but the possibility of large numbers of foreign soldiers joining Russian forces is just one step away.

The dangers of miscalculations and runaway escalation are now very real, despite the fact that a new US administration led by newly elected President Donald Trump is promising to end the conflict one way or another – assuming Russia will listen.