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Drought, heat and climate change are helping fuel US wildfires
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Drought, heat and climate change are helping fuel US wildfires

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Historically dry conditions and drought in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States are a key factor in the series of wildfires the region has experienced in recent weeks, with officials in the Northeast issuing red flag warnings.

On the West Coast, California is battling multiple wildfires, with dry conditions and winds sparking explosive fires that have burned more than 200 homes and businesses.

It’s not possible to say that climate change caused the fires, but the extreme conditions that fueled the fires are strongly linked to the effects of climate change, said David Robinson, a New Jersey state climatologist at Rutgers University.

“Man-made climate change underlies all our daily weather,” he said.

It’s like the weather base has been increased, he said. “The atmosphere is warmer, the oceans are warmer,” he said. If a storm comes through and activates them, you will get torrential rain. But if there’s no trigger, “you still have the increasing heat, so it dries things out.”

Overall, the entire weather system is more energetic, leaning toward the kind of extreme variability we’re seeing now, Robinson said.

“The historic drought, amplified by stronger winds and low relative humidity, continues to fuel fires in New Jersey and other northeastern states in November – a period not typically associated with such events,” said Firas Saleh, director of North American Wildfire Models at Moody’s Ratings. , a business and financial analytics company, said in a statement.

“The wildfires impacting New Jersey serve as an important reminder that wildfire risk is not limited to Western states alone. This situation highlights the critical importance of preparedness and reminds us that climate risks know no geographical boundaries,” he said.

Northeast fires explode

Last month was the second warmest October on record in the 130 years the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been keeping records. Nationally, rainfall was 1.2 inches below average, tying the month with October 1963 as the second driest October on record.

In New Jersey, a small amount of rain earlier this week was “just a Band-Aid,” Robinson said. “Several of our cities with records going back to the 1870s had 42 days without measurable rain.”

“It’s absolutely why we have wildfires all over New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic,” he said. “There is plenty of fuel, most of the leaves have fallen and the forests are bone dry.”

In New York and New Jersey, the Jennings Creek fire expanded into its sixth day on Wednesday, burning more than 3,500 acres.

A fire in California burns more than 215 buildings

Southern California has been dealing with the intense mountain fire since November 6. So far, 216 buildings have been destroyed covering 20,000 acres of land, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Dropping winds allowed firefighters to largely control the winds, officials said Wednesday.

The fire’s behavior was partly due to the fact that California was not in a drought after several years of extremely dry temperatures, experts said. But that in turn has led to its own problems.

Wet years build up what firefighters call “herbaceous fuels,” meaning fast-growing grasses, brush and chaparral. In some places, fuel loads were 50 to 100% above normal due to the previous winter’s rainfall. If things dry up, the entire state could become a tinderbox.

“If we kiln-dry that fuel for seven to 10 days with a record-breaking heat wave, like we just experienced, that’s a recipe for some pretty extreme fire behavior and that’s exactly when the wind arrived,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles.

“These fires started as gang busters,” he said.