TAMPA, Fla. – Tropical Depression 19 has formed and is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara soon, but the National Hurricane Center says there is a chance it will not reach hurricane strength.

As of 4 a.m. Thursday morning, the system was located at 15.9N and 81.7W. It had maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour and was moving westward over the Caribbean Sea at a speed of 26 miles per hour.

The NHC expects the disruption to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in parts of Central America in the coming days.

The system expected to become Sara could make landfall twice, which would weaken the storm before moving into the Gulf if the forecast holds true.

Why has the intensity forecast dropped?

Models show the wave interacting with land over Honduras, the NHC said, which would weaken the system because it would no longer remain over the deep, warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.

The plane could make landfall again next Monday on the Yucatán Peninsula, heading northwest over parts of Belize and Mexico.

If that track holds, FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg says the disturbance will likely enter the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and may remain a tropical storm.

Models show the disruption expected to bring Sara toward Florida by the middle of next week.

Once it reaches the Gulf, conditions are much less conducive to further intensification. From there, an area of ​​high pressure will build north of the system and an easterly sweep over Florida is expected.

“By the time it gets here, given this forecast, there won’t be much left,” Osterberg said. “It’s just getting ripped apart by these upper-level winds, and it’s just a big wet mess.”

Models show the system moving toward Florida next week, but probably not as a hurricane.

According to Osterberg, any rain or wind from the system would move across Florida by the middle of next week.

The system will bring increased rain chances in Florida next week.

It’s worth noting that the weather forecast may show more changes in the coming days, so the disruption will be worth keeping an eye on this weekend and next week.

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