Gather up the last leaves and get the garden cleaned up this weekend, Minnesota.

It’s still early, but multiple forecast models are calling for a strong rain-to-snow event across much of Minnesota next week.

The models suggest a rain system will move into Minnesota late Monday and Tuesday, then possibly linger in the Upper Midwest until midweek. As it orbits over Minnesota, it will likely bring in a supply of cold air strong enough to turn rain to snow by midweek next week. And forecast models suggest heavy snow is possible.

Let’s start with NOAA’s GFS model. The GFS will have the system running in Minnesota late Monday through late Tuesday with an initial burst of (necessary) rain. Then it stops bringing in colder air and the precipitation turns to mostly snow. Here is NOAA’s GFS between 12pm Monday and 6pm Wednesday next week.

Notice how the storm lingers over Lake Superior and then turns back south? In this scenario, snowfall would be heaviest in central and northern Minnesota, with lighter snow around the Twin Cities and the South.

The European model is also pushing a storm into our region next week, with a similar timing. Here is the European model output for next Wednesday at 6am. It indicates mostly rain in the Twin Cities, with a transition zone to heavy, wet snow in the west and north.

I won’t post snowfall results yet because it’s foolish to try to predict a week in advance with significant forecast model errors. But suffice it to say, the chance for heavy plowing snow is increasing next week, especially west and north of the Twin Cities.

I feel more confident that temperatures will drop behind the system for an extended period of time. Models show greater skill with temperature trends than with precipitation. NOAA’s GFS model suggests we dip into the 20s and 30s a few days behind next week’s storm.

It’s been a lovely long fall here in Minnesota. It looks like the door will slam shut on fall, giving way to a wintry landscape across much of Minnesota next week.

Stay informed.