Alex de Minaur is the only newcomer at the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals and – barring a miracle – his debut at the year-end championship won’t last long.

Heading into the final two matches in Group Ilie Nastase on Thursday, De Minaur has only one outlet for successful semi-final qualification. The Australian needs to beat Fritz in straight sets in the afternoon session and he needs Jannik Sinner to beat Daniil Medvedev in straight sets in the nightcap. Even then, De Minaur would have to win a percentage of games won in the tiebreak against Fritz and Medvedev to take second place in the group.

If there’s any good news besides the fact that he’s mathematically still alive (barely!), De Minaur has a history of success against Fritz. The 25-year-old leads the head-to-head series 6-3 overall and 5-3 on the main tour. He has won each of their last two meetings, dating back to the summer of 2023, and he has won both previous indoor meetings (2018 NextGen ATP Finals, 2019 Basel).

It has been a great season for De Minaur, which is why he is in Turin after all. The world number 9 has a 47-21 record that would be even better had he not suffered a hip injury at Wimbledon. However, De Minaur is 0-2 this week with a 6-3, 6-4 setback against Sinner and a 6-2, 6-4 defeat against Medvedev.

Fritz also ends his best season ever. The fifth-ranked American has a 50-22 record, highlighted by his first Grand Slam final at the US Open (lost to Sinner). Fritz opened in Turin with a 6-4, 6-3 upset of Medvedev before succumbing to Sinner 6-4, 6-4.

Although De Minaur played well in this match, Fritz has much more and much better Nitto ATP Finals experience. The 27-year-old reached the semi-finals in 2022 and posted an overall 2-2 record. This time he is 1-1 and has played well in each of his first two games at the Inalpi Arena. With more confidence and also more firepower to punch through a relatively slow indoor hard court, Fritz should have the edge here.

Choice: Fritz in 3