This one is beautifully balanced considering how much is at stake for both teams. Host nation Belgium is five points behind France in second place, with just two games left to play. Belgium simply has to win to have a chance of a play-off place. Italy, on the other hand, is one point away from qualifying for the quarter-finals of the Nations League for the third year in a row. However, it is quite clear that they have no intention of settling for a draw as they are determined to top the group after a dismal performance at last summer’s European Championships.

It has been a tough task for Belgium since a comfortable win against Israel in their opener in this competition. They have lost twice to the French, but managed to win a 2-2 draw against the Italians in Rome, a creditable result without a doubt. Unfortunately for the home side, they have not actually beaten Italy in a competitive match since 1972. Even that draw comes with a degree of softening, as the Red Devils were 2-0 down before Lorenzo Pellegrini was sent off. the first half, and Belgium suddenly had a way back in a match that seemed lost.

Italy has been incredibly difficult to map in recent years. They failed to qualify for two consecutive World Cups, and yet, sandwiched between these unprecedented failures, there was a European Championship victory with Italy beating England at Wembley in the final. They have also proven to be at their best in this competition, winning ten and drawing eight in their last twenty Nations League games. A point here would mean a third successive Nations League quarter-final for the Azzurri, an impressive record, especially when compared to their struggles in other competitions in recent times.

Belgium will have to make do without two of its biggest stars. Neither Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne, arguably the greatest player in the country’s history, nor Real Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois will take part. Italy, on the other hand, will be almost at full strength.

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Odds Belgium vs Italy

Odds from Betfair and updated as of Wednesday 6pm GMT.

• Belgium wins: 31/20 (+155)
• To draw: 11/5 (+220)
• Italy wins: 7/4 (+175)

Location: Stade Koning Baudouin – Brussels
Time: 7:45 PM GMT (2:45 PM ET), Thursday
Streaming: Fubo (US only, free trial)

Form guide

Nations League only

Italy: 3-1-0, 10 points (1st in Group A2), WDWW
Belgium: 1-1-2, 4 points (3rd in Group A2), LDLW

Match prediction

Belgium 1-3 Italy

Despite Belgium having everything on the line in this match, it’s hard to look past the two teams’ respective forms. Italy seems to be giving their best for this competition and will look to win the match and top the group.

More international coverage

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Thibaut Courtois tells Belgium he will not be available for selection in the future

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When Lionel Messi played against West Ham Under-21s: ‘What the hell are you doing in Romford?’

(Photo by Riccardo Calafiori: Emmanuele Ciancaglini / Getty Images)