Will second-year coach Deion Sanders lead Colorado to the Big 12 championship game?

That is the leading question in an exciting race that will continue to develop in the last three weeks of the season. The Buffaloes are one of five teams competing in the Big 12 championship game on Dec. 7 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Colorado is now tied for first place in the conference standings. BYU lost 17-13 to Kansas to fall to 9-1 and 6-1 in the conference. Two teams with two losses in conference play – Iowa State and Arizona State – still have a chance. The Cyclones defeated Cincinnati 34-17. The Sun Devils defeated Kansas State 24-14.

Here’s a look at where these contenders sit in the standings, their respective paths to the Big 12 championship, and the tiebreaker rules if two teams – or three or more teams – are tied in points at the end of the regular season the conference standings.

2024 Big 12 Football Rankings

The Big 12 has four teams with two losses or fewer in conference play with two weeks left in the regular season. Here’s a look at those teams.

Big 12 tiebreaker rules for 2024 season

The Big 12 will use six of these tie-breakers for the 2024 season in the following order until the tie is broken:

Step 1: A mutual battle between the teams.

Step 2: Win percentage against all regular conference opponents among tied teams.

Step 3: Win percentage against the next highest ranked common opponent in the standings (based on record in all matches played within the Conference), running through the standings

Step 4: Combined winning percentage in conference games of conference opponents, or the strength-of-conference schedule.

Step 5: Total wins in a 12-game season

Step 6: Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team rating score) after the final weekend of regular season games

Step 7: Coin toss.

Big 12 contenders heading to the championship game

BYU (9-1, 6-1)

Remaining schedule: in the state of Arizona, versus Houston

BYU lost 17-13 to Kansas, which broke a streak of close wins. BYU is tied with Colorado for first place, and the Buffaloes would likely be favored in that game. The road trip to Arizona State is tough knowing the Cougars haven’t played in Tempe since 1997.

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Colorado (8-2, 6-1)

Remaining schedule: in Kansas, versus Oklahoma State

What a three-week stretch this could be for Colorado. The Buffaloes started that with a convincing 49-24 victory against Utah. The Kansas game will take place at Arrowhead Stadium and the Cowboys will be in spoiler mode in the finals. Colorado controls its own destiny in the race with two more wins.

Arizona State (8-2, 5-2)

Remaining schedule: vs. BYU, in Arizona

What a turnaround for second-year coach Kenny Dillingham. The Sun Devils defeated Kansas State on the road, with Sam Leavitt passing for 275 yards and three touchdowns. Arizona State has brought the Wildcats to the brink of elimination and can tighten up the conference race against BYU in Week 13.

Iowa State (8-2, 5-2)

Remaining schedule: in Utah, versus Kansas State

The Cyclones snapped a two-game losing streak with a 34-17 win against Cincinnati, and they’ll need help along the way. Iowa State has a tough two-game stretch, and the Utah matchup is huge as the other three contenders beat the Utes.

Big 12 common opponents tracker for 2024

Here’s a look at the four teams’ common opponents in the battle. Keep this schedule handy for the last three weeks:

Most likely Big 12 championship game scenario

BYU and Colorado will make it to the Big 12 championship game with two more wins.

The Arizona State scenario is going to be interesting. Let’s say Arizona State wins and Kansas upsets Colorado in Week 13. The Cyclones beat Kansas State and suddenly there would be a tie between BYU, Colorado, Arizona State and Iowa State at 7-2.

The only head-to-head matchup between any of these teams is BYU versus Arizona State. It would trickle down to the winning percentage against regular opponents. Those four teams played UCF, Kansas, Kansas State and Utah.

Arizona State is 4-0 against those teams. BYU is 3-1, and Iowa State would be 3-1 with a sweep. Colorado would be 2-2 and out of the mix. The next step would be the combined winning percentage of BYU and Iowa State’s conference opponents. Right now, that favors Iowa State (28-35, .444) over BYU (24-39, .381).