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Five NBA teams that have exceeded expectations so far, starring the Lakers, Warriors and more
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Five NBA teams that have exceeded expectations so far, starring the Lakers, Warriors and more

It’s important to be skeptical about small sample sizes early in a new NBA season. The perpetual grind of 82 games in the league leaves plenty of time to make up ground in the standings or waste a good start.

At the same time, trends start to stabilize around the 20-game mark of the season, or about a quarter of the way through the schedule. The NBA is quickly approaching that benchmark, and there are a few teams that should feel good about how their seasons are going this year.

Defining success in the NBA all comes down to expectations. Here are five teams that are performing better than expected so far this season.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs are 15-0. The only team in NBA history to have a better start are the Warriors with 73 wins.

There was optimism that new head coach Kenny Atkinson could take Cleveland to the next level heading into the season. Still, few place the Cavs in the East in a circle of contenders (Celtics, Knicks, 76ers, Bucks), preferring to lump them in with the Pacers and Magic in the conference’s second tier. Atkinson has figured out a way to get the Cavs’ four core players to play complementary basketball, with an emphasis on spacing and cutting that wasn’t there before.

The Cavs have so much depth with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley under center, and so much play with Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell both playing at an All-Star level. The depth is good enough to mix and match setups around it. Ty Jerome is emerging as one of the best reserves in the league, while Dean Wade provides the frontcourt shooting, Isaac Okoro adds a point of attack and Caris LeVert delivers even more scoring punches. The East is still down to the Celtics, but the Cavs are clearly their biggest threat to start the season.

Detroit Pistons

There was no choice but to stand up for the Pistons after the franchise became doormats across the league under former braintrust Monty Williams and Troy Weaver. Last season’s 14-win campaign was particularly pathetic. With Trajan Langdon named GM and JB Bickerstaff taking over as head coach, the Pistons are already halfway to last season’s win total this season, and there is real optimism that this is just the beginning of their rise.

The young players Detroit drafted early in the lottery are finally coming into their own. Cade Cunningham still struggles with his turnovers and scoring efficiency, but he is also one of only four players in the league averaging at least 23 points and eight assists. Jaden Ivey has left the Williams doghouse and has the full trust of Bickerstaff, who is unleashing his attacking prowess and transition scoring. 21-year-old center Jalen Duren literally shoots 80 percent from the field. The doomed two big lineups of the Williams era have made way for Bickerstaff who almost always has one elite shooter on the floor in the form of Tim Hardaway Jr. and Malik Beasley, who have combined to shoot 41.7 percent from three-point range entering the week.

The real reason the Pistons are better this year is the defense. After finishing No. 28 in defensive efficiency last season, Detroit now ranks No. 6 in that measure. The Pistons clean the defensive glass (No. 4 in defensive rebound rate) and they do a better job of shutting down shooters. Bickerstaff’s history of building good defenses in Cleveland continues, and it gives the offense more room for error to fix things. The Pistons aren’t exactly a juggernaut yet (can the guards find Duren for easier finishes?), but they’re at least playing respectable basketball, which is more than most Eastern Conference teams can say right now.

Los Angeles Lakers

Only five teams have more wins than the Lakers entering the week thanks to the team’s 9-4 start. At the same time, the team only ranks twelfth in terms of net rating/point differential. LA is punching above its weight so far in part because it has shown good results in close games (a 4-2 record with a net rating of +19.1), but it could be sustainable as long as the team’s veteran stars remain healthy .

The Lakers have always been among the leaders in free throws with LeBron James and Anthony Davis and that remains the case this year. This team is pulling down 80 percent of their freebies, No. 7 in the league, to bolster their top-5 offense. Davis is currently playing at an MVP level, putting up the best scoring production of his career while keeping the defense together. New head coach JJ Redick has given AD more reps with the ball in his hands, and he’s been unstoppable on offense from close range, while also getting a boost from improved three-point shooting. With Rui Hachimura playing more minutes and shooting well from the four, the Lakers finally have the right spacing around Davis, creating an efficient offense.

The Lakers’ perimeter defense is still suspect. They could really use another big man. As rookie Dalton Knecht becomes a bigger part of the rotation, the Lakers’ offensive punch should improve, but their defense will be even shakier. Establishing a solid offensive identity is the bigger priority for Redick, as he can always fall back on Davis’ brilliance protecting the paint when the games really start to count. The Lakers feel like the biggest paper tiger of this group based on the statistics, but the offense might be good enough to keep them going.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets jumped from 22 wins to 41 wins in their first season under Ime Udoka a year ago, and look to take another step in their development this season. Houston is on its way to a 10-4 (ed comment: now 10-5) starts thanks to fantastic depth, relentless athleticism and ferocious defense. The Rockets enter the week ranked third in defensive efficiency and fifth in net rating. It won’t be easy to hang on in the hellish Western Conference, but the Rockets are quickly emerging as one of the NBA’s most fascinating teams heading into the trade deadline.

The Rockets lack an elite rim protector in Alperen Sengun under center, but there is so much length and explosiveness around him that the defense still thrives. Tari Eason and Amen Thompson become a game-changing duo off the bench, providing Udoka with two monster athletes who force takeaways and finish plays in transition. Houston does a great job of getting into gaps for deflections (sixth of total deflections) and challenging shots at the rim with multiple defenders. The Rockets have been able to unleash their young players on the offensive glass without hurting their transition defense.

The offense can make up for the lack of shooting by being No. 2 in the league in offensive rebounding percentage. Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. each shoot under 33 percent from three, but have the talent and pedigree to shoot. Reed Sheppard could also help lubricate the offense with his shooting and ball movement, but thus far Udoka has been hesitant to put the No. 3 overall pick on the floor for meaningful minutes. Houston is doing a great job of avoiding turnovers for a team that ranks seventh in transition frequency so far. There are already vague rumors of a trade for Kevin Durant or Giannis Antetokounmpo floating around the franchise. Houston has so many good young players that it can’t even find minutes for Cam Whitmore right now. A consolidation trade could be on the horizon, but there’s already so much to like about what the Rockets are doing this year.

Warriors of the Golden State

The Warriors lost Klay Thompson this offseason, but the way they replaced him makes Golden State look like a contender in the Western Conference again. The Warriors dynasty has always been synonymous with shooting, but their depth and defense have always been almost as important. Both factors have returned in a big way this year. Steve Kerr plays the NBA’s largest rotation, with 11 players taking the floor in every game so far. It has happened that a defense that was in fifteenth place last year has risen to number four.

Stephen Curry remains brilliant, but the Warriors know they can’t rely on him to give the team all the ball as he approaches his 37th birthday in March. Golden State signed three players to replace Thompson in Buddy Hield this summer. Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton, and each of them will fit like a glove if they’ve been healthy thus far. Hield has a legitimate claim to both Most Improved Player and Sixth Man of the Year, scoring nearly a point per minute as Golden State has isolated him defensively. All the new pieces seem to understand the quick decision-making that is so crucial to Steve Kerr’s system. Having Curry and Green to quarterback the offense and defense respectively makes life so much easier for the new pieces coming into the rotation.

The Warriors enter the week as the only team currently ranked in the top-5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The West is a gauntlet, and the Warriors’ return to relevance only makes it scarier.