A two-goal triumph is needed to have any hope of progressing to the next round of the CONCACAF Nations League, Mexico host Honduras Tuesday at Estadio Nemesio Diez.

In the opening match of that quarter-final tie, La H secured a 2-0 victory as they looked for their first semi-final appearance at this tournament since 2019-2020.

Match example

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It is deja vu for the Mexicans going into the second leg of this quarter-final tie having fallen two goals behind against the Hondurans, the same deficit as a year ago.

If history is any indication, they will fancy their chances of progressing despite their current predicament, having won the second leg of that tie (2-0) last year before eliminating Los Catrachos on penalties.

The first defeat was suffered on Friday Javier Aguirre in his third spell as national coach, and the first time his team had conceded a goal since his return.

El Tri have never lost a Nations League match on Mexican soil and came from behind to beat Bermuda 2-1 in their only previous meeting in Toluca at this tournament.

They have not gone scoreless in consecutive games against Central American opposition since following up a 1-1 draw against Costa Rica in September 2017 with a 3-2 defeat to Honduras the following month.

Mexico have never missed the semi-finals of a CONCACAF tournament since Colombia knocked them out in the quarter-finals of the 2005 Gold Cup (2-1).

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For long stretches in the first leg, the Hondurans were on the back foot and only seemed to be holding on before suddenly bursting into life with a goal after 64 minutes.

That goal changed everything as they then created several good scoring opportunities in transition and could have ultimately won by more than two goals.

Reinaldo Rueda‘s men are currently on a three-match unbeaten run in the Nations League, having failed to concede in the last two such affairs.

When the Hondurans faced this situation against El Tri a year ago, they paid the price for their complacency and wasted time in the second leg of that tie. They conceded the equalizer in the eleventh minute of stoppage time and missed two penalties in the shootout.

If they can avoid defeat by two or more goals on Tuesday, La Bicolor will book a place in the semi-finals of this competition for the first time since the 2019-20 season, when they finished third.

It has been more than eleven years since La H last defeated El Tri in Mexico (2-1 in September 2013), while as visitors they failed to score in nine consecutive meetings and avoided defeat only twice.

Mexico CONCACAF Nations League format:

Mexico form (all competitions):

Honduras CONCACAF Nations League format:

Honduras format (all competitions):

Team news

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Aguirre made four changes from the Mexican team, which defeated the US in a friendly match (2-0) last month to earn the victory Guillermo Ochoa, Israel Reyes, Luis Chavez And Julian Quinonen replace Luis Malagon, Johan Vasquez, Andres Guardado And Roberto Alvarado.

Jesus Gallardo is one cap away from the century mark after being an unused substitute on Friday Cesar Montes made his 50th appearance in the defeat.

Raul Jimenez remains at 34 goals with El Tri and can still surpass this Carlos Hermosillo for fifth all-time on the national team should he find the back of the net in leg two.

Rueda made two changes to the Honduran starting XI in the first leg of this tie, bringing him in Alexander Lopez And Jorge Benguche replace Kervin Arriaga And Anthony Lozano.

Yustin Arboleda came on for Benguche just after the hour on Friday for his first appearance at La H Alenis Vargas And Jesus Batiz are still looking for their first international caps.

Luis Palma made an immediate impression from the bench on Friday, scoring within a minute of being substituted Bryan Acosta and another goal seven minutes before the end, his second and third for Los Catrachos.

Possible starting line-up for Mexico:
Ochoa; Sánchez, Reyes, Montes, Gallardo; Alvarez, Romo; Vega, Jimenez, Huerta; Sepulveda

Honduras possible starting lineup:
Menjivar; Najar, Maldonado, Vega, Rosales; Rivas, Flores, Pineda, Palma; Rodríguez, Castillo

We say: Mexico 2-0 Honduras (Mexico advance after penalties)

Playing in Mexico always looks like the great equalizer in El Tri’s favour, and we expect Aguirre to put together a solid tactical plan that will allow his team to get back to this draw and move on.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match, click here.

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