For centuries, the magnetic North Pole steadily tracked along Canada’s northern coast. But in recent decades it has taken a new path, accelerating at varying speeds across the Arctic Ocean towards the Russian province of Siberia, which has mystified scientists.

The magnetic north pole is the direction in which the compass needles point, which is not to be confused with the geographic north pole, or “true north”: a fixed point where all lines of longitude intersect and that serves as the Earth’s axis of rotation.

Why does magnetic north move?

The key to this mysterious movement lies deep within our planet, about 3,000 kilometers below the surface.

“The magnetic poles are shifting because the magnetic field is an actively generated feature of our planet – the outer core,” William Brown, a geomagnetism researcher at the British Geological Survey (BGS), told me. Newsweek.

Brown explained that the outer core “is full of molten iron, convects and flows vigorously, and as a result generates an unpredictably varying magnetic field.”

Although scientists can monitor these changes, predicting future movements remains a challenge due to the chaotic nature of these deep-Earth processes.

The BGS, along with other organizations, has geomagnetic observatories around the world designed to accurately measure the Earth’s magnetic field and locate its poles.

Brown added: “We monitor the magnetic field to estimate how it is changing and how the material flow in the outer core is changing, and then predict how we think this will continue over the next five years.”

Where is the North Magnetic Pole currently located?

The journey of the magnetic North Pole has shown dramatic changes in speed and direction in recent decades. After remaining relatively stable along the Canadian Arctic for centuries, it entered the Arctic Ocean in the 1990s and began its march towards Siberia.

The movement of the pole is significantly varied:

• From 1600 to 1990: Moved about 10-15 kilometers (about 6 to 9 miles) per year
• Early 2000s: Accelerated to about 55 kilometers (about 34 miles) per year
• Past five years: slowed to about 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) per year.

According to Brown, the South Pole is much more stable: “The South Magnetic Pole has moved very little and has traveled about the same distance in a century as the North Pole moves in ten years.”

This movement is monitored by the World Magnetic Model, a partnership between the British Geological Survey and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The model’s importance extends beyond scientific interest: it is critical to navigation systems around the world, from smartphone compasses to military submarines operating in Arctic waters.

But where the North Pole will go next is a mystery.

“The Arctic could very well change course — and/or slow down or speed up — at some point in the near future,” Arnaud Chulliat, a geophysicist at the University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, told me. , earlier. Newsweek.

This uncertainty means that the World Magnetic Model must be updated every five years. With the latest version released in 2019, a new model will be released in the coming months.

“We really can’t predict at this point how the field will change in ten years,” Ciaran Beggan, a geophysicist at BGS, previously said. Newsweek.

“So I can’t say if the dip pole will ever reach Siberia, as it could stop and reverse in ten years.”

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Update 11/18/24 09:50 ET: The article has been updated with comments from William Brown.