The College Football Playoff field is still taking shape and this weekend will be key in determining who is and is not in it. Saturday’s biggest treat is a matchup of top-five teams, with the undefeated No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) visiting the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) in a Big Ten battle.

The Hoosiers can clinch a spot in the Big Ten championship game with a win, while the favored Buckeyes (-13.5) need to win to stay alive in the race for Indianapolis. Indiana is an underdog for the first time this season and puts its undefeated ATS record on the line as Ohio State looks to extend its 31-game unbeaten streak against the Hoosiers.

This will mark the fourth time an AP top-five team has been a double-digit underdog in a regular season game over the past 10 seasons (previous teams are 1-2 ATS) and the 15th time in that span as the postseason games are included (underdogs are 4-10 ATS).

As things stand heading into the weekend, Ohio State is the favorite to win the national championship at 3-1 (-8000 to make the CFP). Despite its undefeated status, Indiana is the ninth pick at 25-1 (-350 to make the CFP).

Kicking off from Columbus, Ohio, is Saturday at noon ET on Fox.

Odds current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET

The lines

Spread: Ohio State -13.5
Moneyline: Ohio State -550, Indiana +380
Top/bottom: 51.5 (over +100/under -120)

Distribution over the first half: Ohio State -7.5 (+102), Indiana +7.5 (-125)
Moneyline first half: Ohio State -420, Indiana +290
Total points first half: 26.5 (over -115/under -105)

Maldonado’s pick: Indiana +13.5

Despite Indiana’s 10-0 record and dominant performance, the betting line moving from +11.5 to +13.5 in Ohio State’s favor reflects a surprising level of disrespect for the Hoosiers, indicating that oddsmakers and bettors are skeptical remain concerned about their ability to compete with the eternal superpower. Buckeyes.

Indiana’s best chance to cover the spread by double digits lies in exploiting quarterback Will Howard’s limitations. While the Hoosiers’ offense will play a role, their defense is the key to keeping this game competitive.

Howard has struggled to avoid edge rushers, which presents an opportunity for Indiana’s defense, especially Mikail Kamara. The Hoosiers’ standout defensive end leads the Big Ten with 9.5 sacks and could be a gamechanger if he can apply pressure and force Howard into rash decisions. Howard’s vulnerability, which often falters when faced with an aggressive pass rush, has led to a troubling number of turnovers, most notably seven fumbles in the 2024 season alone, which ranks him fifth among quarterbacks.

Howard’s struggles extend beyond ball security and accuracy. When forced out of the pocket, Howard’s accuracy drops significantly, with his struggle to maintain vision of the field leading to inaccurate passes ranging from submissions to wild overthrows. On passes longer than 10 yards, Howard completed just 59% outside the digits and 68% between the digits, suggesting limitations in arm strength or timing on longer throws on the sideline.

To exploit these weaknesses, Indiana’s defense could design blitz packages that push Howard to his non-dominant side, use edge rushers to contain him while applying interior pressure. Linebacker Aiden Fisher can be used as a spy to track down Howard and focus on better coverage in the middle of the field while challenging the Buckeyes’ QB to rely more on less efficient outside throws.

While an outright win may be unlikely, Indiana’s focus on exploiting Howard’s weaknesses gives the Hoosiers a solid chance to keep the game close. The key lies in the consistent execution of their pressure packages and capitalizing on forced errors.

Betting Trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Indiana is 8-2 ATS, tied with Arizona State and Colorado for the best record among Power 4 teams.

• The Hoosiers are one of eight undefeated ATS teams on the road; their coverage margin of +19.8 per road game is third best in FBS.

• This is Indiana’s first game as an underdog.

• Indiana is 3-9 ATS against ranked teams since 2021, third-worst in FBS over that span (minimum 10 games).

• Ohio State is 1-6 ATS in conference play, tied for second in FBS (only Florida State is worse).

• The Buckeyes are 5-10 ATS against top-10 teams over the past five seasons, third-worst in FBS (min. 10 games).

• Ohio State has a 31-game undefeated streak against Indiana since 1989 (30-0-1) and is 17-12-2 ATS in that span.

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