Penn State bounced back from a disappointing home loss to Ohio State with dominant wins over Washington and Purdue by a combined 68 points.

The Nittany Lions enter this game against Minnesota, which is coming off its bye week after a loss to Rutgers.

The Golden Gophers have already locked up a bowl game spot, but they’ll try to play a spoiler here.

Where does the advantage lie in this Big Ten matchup? Let’s dig into the numbers and find out.

Penn State vs. Minnesota Odds

When Penn State has the ball

Penn State boasts one of the most consistent offenses in the country, ranking in the top eight in success rate in both the pass and run games.

Drew Allar’s efficiency has improved under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, as he has increased from 6.8 YPA to 9.8.

However, Penn Sate’s wide receiver room lacks the explosiveness of the elite, and Minnesota ranks 23rd in PFF’s coverage grade.

The Gophers must always remain aware of where Tyler Warren is. He is perhaps the nation’s most versatile offensive talent, with 67 catches for 808 yards and five touchdowns, along with 157 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

The Nittany Lions also have a mean running back duo in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. However, the Gophers offer much more resistance to the run than any opponents they’ve seen recently, thanks to a stout run-stopping unit led by standout linebacker Cody Lindenberg.

First-year Minnesota defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman has done a great job with this Gophers group that ranks 11th in the FBS in early downs EPA/play allowed. This might be the best non-Ohio State defense Penn State has seen all season.

When Minnesota has the ball

The Golden Gophers have failed to run the ball all year and rank 107th in success rate. That won’t change here against the Penn State defense, which ranks fifth in EPA/rush allowed. They are well aware of that deficit, however, as they rank 113th in rush play rate and have deployed more of an Air Raid offense with quarterback Max Brosmer.

After transferring from New Hampshire before the season, Brosmer has led an efficient passing offense that ranks in the top 50 in passing percentage. Borsmer rarely makes mistakes, and he only has a turnover-worthy play rate of 2.9% under pressure, which is essential against a luminous Penn State pass rush.

The Nittany Lions have an excellent secondary, ranking 17th in PFF coverage grades, led by breakout cornerback AJ Harris.

It will be fascinating to see if he can match up Saturday with wide receiver Daniel Jackson, who leads the Gophers with 63 catches for 712 yards this season.

Betting on college football?

Choice between Penn State and Minnesota

According to Action Labs, PJ Fleck has an 11-5 record against the spread (ATS) (68.8%) when his team goes more than 10 days between games, not including his 5-0 record in bowl games .

This Minnesota coaching staff has done a great job all season and will have a great game plan for a Penn State team that could find itself in a sleepy situation.

The Gophers can limit Penn State’s possessions through methodical drives and a lack of turnovers, and in a game between two excellent defenses, I’m happy to take the points if the home dog gets off on a bye week.

BEST BET: Minnesota +11.5 (-110, FanDuel)

Why trust New York Post betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He is up 84.5 units in the two sports with an ROI of 6.27%.