As much as Deion Sanders and Co. Even though they’ve impressed this year, I’m still not sold on the Buffaloes.

My biggest problem is that the offensive is not good.

Shedeur Sanders is constantly running for his life, and Colorado ranks 104th nationally in allowed spending money (8 percent).

Of greater importance to this matchup is that the Buffaloes can’t run the ball behind their lousy front five – they rank 110th nationally in EPA per Rush and seventh in pass play percentage (60%).

That bodes well for Kansas.

The Jayhawks’ undersized front seven is vulnerable against the rush (125th nationally in EPA per rush allowed).

Nevertheless, the defense is fine defending the pass behind the strong cornerback duo of Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant.

On the other side of the ball, Kansas’ offense has been on fire now that Jalon Daniels is healthy.

The Jayhawks had a series of unfortunate losses early in the season, but they have won three of their past four games, losing by more than 40 points to Iowa State and Houston down the stretch.

Colorado’s rush defense is only average (66th nationally in EPA per Rush Allowed), and the Jayhawks boast a top-10 rushing attack behind dual-threat Daniels and star running back Devin Neal.

This is a good matchup for the rising Jayhawks, and it appears the Buffaloes are overrated: four of their six Big 12 wins have come against teams with losing league records.

Choice: Kansas +3.

Northwest (+10.5) over MICHIGAN

Michigan’s passing attack has looked a little better since the Wolverines started playing Davis Warren again.

The senior can complete almost 60% of his passes and tends to keep the ball away with a low average target depth.

Still, the Wolverines’ aerial attack is among the worst in college football.

They are still overly reliant on the rushing attack, ranking 27th nationally in rush play percentage (58%).

That doesn’t bode well against Northwestern, which features a gruesome secondary but talented front seven that ranks in the top 15 nationally in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate.

Betting on college football?

I don’t know how Northwestern scores, but the Wildcats defense can keep it competitive, and getting more than 10 points in a points-at-a-premium, low-scoring, rushing Big 10 battle is good value.

For what it’s worth, only one of Michigan’s five wins has been by more than 10 points, and road underdogs in conference play with totals under 45 points have gone 374-294-18 against the spread since 2005.

Could Michigan also be looking ahead to next week’s rivalry game with Ohio State?

I wouldn’t be surprised if they look unprepared at home on Saturday against a traditionally lame Northwestern program.

Last week: 1-2. Notre Dame (L), Kansas State (L), Kansas (W).
Season 2024: 20-14.

Why trust New York Post betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and every underdog in the house. He found himself on the wrong end of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made amends four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot over Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.