It’s still very early and the forecast could certainly change, but the timing looks like late Thanksgiving evening through much of Friday could be messy.

The latest models indicate that this storm may arrive later than initially thought, becoming more of a Black Friday storm than a Thanksgiving storm. Yet another possible track shows with good confidence that the jet stream will be bent and try to run parallel to the coast, which could send the core of this layer offshore as it approaches New England and create a larger impact storm cause.

In other words, this has the potential of a nor’easter.

A strong low-pressure system, a nor’easter, is simply a storm setting with winds from the northeast. That doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll get a lot of heavy snow or rain. Right now it looks like mostly rain in Boston and the rest of southern New England and snow in the north. Remember, it’s still very early and this forecast could absolutely change.

The amount of precipitation will depend on how much moisture is available over the North Atlantic Ocean and how cold the air is over land. This contrast creates instability – or more accurately, energy – in the atmosphere, with the relatively moist air quickly rising and condensing into rain or snow.

Either way, it’ll be worth seeing how things come together in the coming days.

As of now, most models will have the core of this low baseboard right near Thanksgiving evening on the southern New England coast, which will make it interesting. It seems unlikely that this storm will be a full-scale snowstorm, but guidance does agree that there will be messy weather that will spoil travel plans, with rain, snow and gusty winds.

Southern New England Forecast

This system should bring rain mainly to Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts and Connecticut through at least Thanksgiving evening and most of Friday. It’s really too early to see rain and snow totals, but there should be enough cold air present, especially on the back end of the system, to bring some sleet, ice or snow into the picture at times in the hill towns of Central and Western Mass. We will see what track this storm will take, which will of course determine where the rain-snow line will be.

If I had to go by the rain and snow totals, given all the variables at play here, I would expect between 1 and 1½ inches of rain across all of southern New England, with possibly 2 to 4 inches in the western four counties of Massachusetts.

Windy conditions are likely, with gusts up to 25 to 30 miles per hour, especially along the coast.

Northern New England Forecast

As of now, it looks like Northern New England will experience a snow shower for much of the day Thursday evening and Friday, but trends for now show that snow could be concentrated in central and southern parts of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Uncertainty about the exact storm track could bring rain or a wintry mix to the area starting Thursday night, with a switch to all snow on Friday.

Again, if I had to throw out a snowfall range, I’d say between 3 and 6 inches, but this is really just a guess as to how many variables to consider with a storm still four days away.

The weather will become clearer as we get closer to the holidays, but make sure you spend extra time on the road and don’t rush to your destination.

Temperatures will certainly drop during the holidays. An arctic chill should prevail across the region on Thanksgiving, with likely daily highs only reaching the low 40s and overnight lows near or below freezing.

The cold air should last through the weekend, with temperatures barely above 40 degrees on Black Friday. The morning will be much cooler as shoppers head out before dawn to score some early holiday bargains.

The coming storms, combined with recent precipitation Thursday through Friday, are expected to help alleviate severe drought conditions following an exceptionally dry fall. On November 17, Boston broke a 110-year record for driest autumn. Months of high pressure dominated the region, leading to extremely dry conditions across New England and an unprecedented number of wildfires in Massachusetts.

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Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.