It’s time to take one last stab at what the 2024 FCS playoff bracket will look like before Selection Sunday.

The official bracket will be announced on Sunday, November 24. The selection show airs at 11:30 a.m. CT on ESPNU.

Below are predictions for the seeds, the at-large bids and which teams are in the bubble. This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.

The field

Final Bracketology 2021-2023 Accuracy: 22/24 Top 8 seeds correct, 69/72 teams in the field correct

Seeds
1. State of Montana
2. State of South Dakota
3. State of North Dakota
4. South Dakota
5. UC Davis
6. Idaho
7.Mercer
8.Richmond
9. UIW
10. Rhode Island
11. Villanova
12.Montana
13. Abilene Christian
14. State of Illinois
15. Tarleton State
16. SEMO

Automatic bids
Big Sky – Montana State
Great South OVC – SEMO
CAA–Richmond
MVFC – South Dakota State
NEC-CCSU
Patriot Lehigh
Pioneer – Drake
SoCon–Mercer
Southland – UIW
UAC – Abilene Christian

Big bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams that are not their conference’s automatic bid are listed at the top.

South Dakota (seed)
State of North Dakota (seed)
UC Davis (seed)
Idaho (seed)
Rhode Island (seed)
Villanova (seed)
Montana (seed)
State of Illinois (seed)
Tarleton State (seed)
Eastern Kentucky
Last 4 in
State of Tennessee
Northern Arizona
New Hampshire
Southern Utah

Bubble teams left out
Ordered from the best chance of getting out of this group to the worst chance.

25. UT Martin
26. Western Carolina
27. Stony brook
28. Southeast Louisiana
29. Chattanooga
30. NC Central

The bracket

The FCS playoff bracket increased the number of seeded teams from 8 to 16 this year. Seeds 1-8 get a bye in the first round, and Seeds 9-16 host games in the first round, as long as they meet the minimum bid. First-round matchups will still be paired based on geography. However, the second round will no longer be based on regionalization. Seed No. 16 will feed into Seed No. 1, Seed No. 15 into Seed No. 2, and so on.

The first round is still regionalized to save the NCAA on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips as possible (400 miles or less) while avoiding regular season retakes.

The committee will avoid first-round conference games if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be matched in the first round. Regular season, non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.

If a conference has four or more teams in the championship, the committee may allow a minor seeding adjustment in brackets 9-16 to prevent a conference from having all teams on the same side of the bracket.

Seed order is not determined by regionalization.

The explanation

State of Montana should get the No. 1 seed at 12-0 with an FBS win and three currently ranked wins.

Seeds 2-4 then become very interesting. USD/NDSU/SDSU all have one FCS loss, all against each other in incredibly tight games.

It’s really hard to know what this committee will be in favor of. NDSU has the best overall body of work versus USD and SDSU with more D1 wins, more current ranking wins, a stronger schedule, and a better FBS loss record. But the committee could also consider USD’s most recent head-to-head win over NDSU as a tiebreaker. They could also use SDSU as an automatic bid as a tiebreaker. Additionally, SDSU defeated USD…

My feeling says it now State of South Dakota gets the No. 2 seed at 10-2, nine D1 wins, three currently ranked wins and two Top 10 wins. The Jacks do have the head-to-head loss to NDSU, but they also finished the season stronger with a win, have the AQ and were able to get the defending champions’ benefit of the doubt that the Bison enjoyed for years. SDSU defeated USD. SDSU almost won bee NDSU and led until the final minutes, and therefore on a neutral field? The committee could choose SDSU over NDSU if the argument boils down to “Who do we think would win on a neutral court?”

That would put N.D.S.U at No. 3 with 10 D1 wins, four currently ranked wins and the No. 1 SOS. USD would be No. 4 with eight D1 wins and one currently ranked win. But again, does the committee prefer the whole body or work or mutual confrontation?

I have no confidence in my 2-4 order of seeds. I’ve been convinced in three different ways since USD beat NDSU.

UC Davis should slot into the No. 5 seed at 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, and two currently ranked wins.

Idaho finishes 9-3 overall with two FCS losses to UC Davis and Montana State, an FBS win and two currently ranked wins. Mercer is 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with four wins at the then ranking and no wins at the current ranking. Idaho’s SOS is 6th compared to Mercer’s 60th.

For the final first round bye…

Richmond edges UIW for seed No. 8. Both are 10-2 overall. Richmond has the better win (over Delaware) than UIW’s win over NAU. Richmond has one FCS loss compared to UIW’s two. Richmond went 8-0 in the CAA. And Richmond looked like the stronger team in today’s games, as UIW battled East Texas A&M, while Richmond handled playoff hopefuls William & Mary.

Rhody gets the No. 10 seed at 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, and one win in the current rankings. Villanova is right behind Rhody with a 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS with two ranked wins.

Montana And Abilene Christian are both 8-4 with two currently ranked wins, but Montana has a slightly better SOS.

State of Illinois And Tarleton State are both 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS with no currently ranked wins. ISU’s SOS is slightly stronger than Tarleton’s.

I wasn’t sure where to go with seed No. 16. I set SEMO there it finished 9-3 overall and 9-2 against the FCS with one win in the rankings. And it’s pretty high in the polls, which sometimes reflects voters’ opinions.

On the right side of the bell…

Eastern Kentucky has a good argument for being 8-4 overall and 8-2 against the FCS with one win in the current rankings. State of Tennessee is 9-3 overall and just defeated SEMO. Northern Arizona is 8-4 overall with seven D1 wins with only one win in the then-rankings, but it is No. 15 in Massey’s ratings and has the No. 25 SOS.

New Hampshire is 8-4 overall, 8-3 vs. the FCS, and has a win over bubble team Stony Brook. Southern Utah is 7-5 with an FBS win, a ranked win over EKU and about a Top 20 SOS.

On the wrong side of the bubble…

UT Martin will have a good case coming in at 8-4, an FBS win and a ranked win over Tennessee State. The SOS is 50th compared to SUU’s 21st.

Western Carolina is 7-5 overall and 7-4 vs. the FCS, but it does not have a win over a currently ranked team. It does have the head-to-head 7-D1 victory Chattanooga.

Stony Brook is 8-4 overall and 8-3 vs. the FCS, but it currently has no ranked wins and lost to two consecutive unranked teams to end the year. Southeast Louisiana is 7-5 overall and 7-3 vs. the FCS, while NC Central is 8-3 overall with seven D1 wins. But both lack any ranked wins.