If your refrigerator is broken, or your iPhone starts acting up and running out of charge, this holiday season might be the time to trade in — before President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed sweeping tariffs could disappear. into effect next year.

During his campaign, Trump promised to impose a blanket tariff of 60 percent on Chinese goods, and a tariff of 10 to 20 percent on imports from all other trading partners. He also warned that he would be willing to impose a 25 percent tariff on Mexican goods if the country does not cooperate with his immigration plans.

The president-elect has argued that the massive trade escalation would have no impact on consumer prices and would burden other countries while boosting U.S. manufacturing. Most economists, including Republicans, disagree, saying tariffs are typically passed on in the form of higher prices to consumers.

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“Shoppers eyeing expensive items this Black Friday should consider acting quickly, especially with potential tariffs looming that could potentially increase prices,” Chip Lupo, a writer and analyst at WalletHub, told me. Newsweek. “Electronics, appliances, automobiles and furniture are particularly vulnerable to price increases due to their dependence on imported parts and materials.”

According to the US Census Bureau, the US imported $4 trillion worth of goods and services last year. Of that total, $433 billion came from China. If Trump’s proposed tariffs go into effect, the National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates that American consumers could lose between $46 billion and $78 billion in purchasing power annually.

“A tariff is a tax paid by the U.S. importer, not another country or the exporter. This tax ultimately comes out of consumers’ pockets through higher prices,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president of supply chain and customs policy, in a press release earlier this month.

Raymond Robertson, director of the Mosbacher Institute for Trade, Economics, and Public Policy at Texas A&M University, said Newsweek that “people don’t get it” that rates and taxes are essentially the same thing.

“Tariffs are taxes. Taxes cause prices to rise,” Robertson said. “I’m just so baffled that people don’t put two and two together.”

Despite consumer confusion and mixed signals from the market, NRF still expects steady sales growth for the holiday season. The world’s largest retail association expects a record 183.4 million people will shop in-store and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber ​​Monday. The NRF also predicts that retail sales in November and December will grow between 2.5 and 3.5 percent over last year, increasing from $979.5 billion to $989 billion.

“For price-conscious consumers, the advice is clear: prioritize purchases now if you’re looking for things like stoves, smartphones or cars,” Lupo said. “With Black Friday deals in play, it’s a smart move to lock in lower prices before new tariffs take effect. Waiting could result in sticker shock once the tariffs kick in and retailers are forced to adjust their prices to to absorb higher import costs.”

These are the important items to look out for during the holidays:

Electronics: iPhones, laptops, tablets, cameras, headphones, video games

Smartphones account for about a tenth of goods imported last year, US Census data shows. More than 80 percent of these devices are manufactured in China.

If Trump continues with his 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports, iPhone prices are likely to rise. Economists predict that a $1,000 iPhone 16 could cost Americans $300 more under such a rate.

And it’s not just phones. Lupo estimates that prices of electronics such as laptops, tablets and gaming consoles could rise between 25 and 45 percent.

“A lot of people, like students, are really interested in getting their laptop now, rather than waiting,” Robertson says. “If you are going to study, start a new program or just get a new computer, people need to start taking steps now.”

A 2017 report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis also found that about 90 percent of electronic video and audio equipment, 88 percent of electronic computers, and 78 percent of small electrical appliances are imported.

“(Electronics) are the ones that will probably be hit hard, both by Chinese tariffs and elsewhere, because we also import a lot of electronics from Mexico and other places,” Robertson said.

Since last year, Mexico has become America’s largest trading partner, eclipsing both Canada and China. In 2023, the US and Mexico exchanged nearly $798 billion in goods and services.

“The U.S. market and the Mexican market are not actually separate markets,” Robertson said. “There’s one labor market, there’s one education market, one energy market, they’re not separate markets. So these rates for Mexico are a lot like rates for California… it’s not good for our consumers.”

Home appliances: stoves, refrigerators, dishwashers, blenders and more

Home appliances are also likely to face new tariffs. Lupo predicts that prices for items like refrigerators and washing machines will rise by almost 20 percent if the Trump tariffs take effect. NRF predicts that U.S. consumers will pay between $6.4 billion and $10.9 billion more for these devices.

“Having just renovated my kitchen and bathroom, I feel the pain!” Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told us Newsweek.

“Many parts and components required for such renovations are sourced from China or contain components made in China,” she said. “Many kitchens are designed around cabinets that originated in China. Appliances either come from China or have Chinese parts. If the manufacturer is in the US, the factory will have to pay more for those Chinese parts. So many other products will be affected by this.” hit. Well – wood, paint, tools, screws.”

Robertson added that home appliances could even be hit twice, as steel and aluminum were significantly affected by Trump’s latest round of tariffs.

“It’s kind of a double whammy,” he said. “Because you get the direct tariffs, plus the input tariffs, which drive prices up twofold.”

Other items: cars, clothes, toys, furniture

Shoppers can also expect clothes, toys, furniture and gas-powered cars – but not electric vehicles – to become more expensive.

Based on the proposed rates, the NRF expects Americans will pay $13.9 billion to $24 billion more for clothing, $8.8 billion to $14.2 billion more for toys and $8.5 billion to $13.1 billion more for furniture.

“The cost of these items depends not only on the tariffs themselves, but also on the ripple effects throughout the supply chain, which could further drive inflation,” Lupo said. “Companies that face higher import taxes may pass these costs on to consumers, leaving shoppers with little choice but to pay more.”

“The range of products and levels of trade taxes (tariffs) make the new Republican Party the most pro-tax party in recent history,” Robertson added.

“All the things you see at the bigger department stores like Target or Walmart are probably going to be hit hard by tariffs.”

There are already signs of stress among retailers heading into what is typically their strongest season. Shares of Target fell 22 percent on Wednesday – its biggest drop in two and a half years – after telling investors it was facing mounting cost pressures and ongoing supply chain issues.

The big-box retailer should have seen an increase in spending between the back-to-school and Halloween seasons.

“Consumers are telling us their budgets are still tight and they are shopping carefully,” Target CEO Brian Cornell told investors on a conference call. He said the company was navigating “a volatile operating environment,” even before tariffs were introduced.