In the wake of one of the best pre-Thanksgiving frames in over a decade Bad And Gladiator II With a frame worth over $200 million, crowded lobbies around the world will remain intact this week, as will Disney’s Moana 2 joins the fray with what is expected to be a $225 million+ largely day-and-date global opening.

That’s just under $295 million Disney’s own Inside out 2 gathered earlier this year; that Pixar pic remains the best animated film of all time and the best seen so far in 2024, at $652.9 million domestically and $1.69 billion (you can read the screenplay here). People like AMC circuit boss Adam Aron believe that Moana 2 could top that.

Moana 2 starts previews in the United States on Tuesday at 2 p.m. and rolls out abroad on Wednesday, looking for success $100 million+ abroad and wherever from $125 million – $135 million during the five-day domestic Thanksgiving Day period at 4,100 locations. It’s going for a record this weekend and not only looking to upset Disney’s previous five-day record opening of $93.5 million for 2013 Frozen but also the $125 million, five-day Thanksgiving harvest in 2019 Frozen II. Presales, we are told, are ahead Frozen 2 And The Super Mario Bros Movie ($204.6 million, 5 days open).

Moana 2 has all the women, so what happens to Universal’s? Bad in his second round? Jon M. Chu’s feature film version of the Broadway hit might be a buzzsaw, but that remains to be seen with a $90 million+ 5 days (the last 3 days were $112.5 million). What Moana 2 has that Bad ain’t got is a shorter running time of 100 minutes versus the last 2 hours and 40 minutes – a much easier time-tolerance for parents with children. Plus, thanks to Dwayne Johnson’s Maui, there’s an on-screen character to keep boys occupied, unlike the singing apalooza of Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.

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There is a grab for Imax and PLF screens, and these will be shared between the three major films. I understand that Moana 2 will have 300 Imax screens, resulting in two to three showtimes per day, while the animated sequel starring Auli’i Cravalho will be booked on 700 PLF screens with 2,200 sites with 3D. No reviews have yet been registered on Rotten Tomatoes for the follow-up to the two-time Oscar-nominated 2016 original, which grossed $643.3 million worldwide. While the premieres were held in Maui and London last week, the bigger media is getting to see it Moana 2 tonight for the first time. The original Moana opened to $56.6 million for 3 days and $82 million for 5 days. The Moana 2 team are currently on a press tour through Italy.

Moana 2 was announced by Disney CEO Bob Iger during an earnings call in February, with the studio moving to a planned Disney+ Moana series to a sequel film to fill the Thanksgiving vacancy this year. News of the sequel left a live-action in the works Moana starring Johnson until July 10, 2026.

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Moana 2 surfs to France, Korea and Italy on Wednesday. On Thursday she adds Germany, Mexico, Australia and Brazil to the wave, while on Friday Britain, Spain and China enter the mix. This will represent 94% of the international footprint, as Japan does a week later on December 6.

The first Moanawhich saw a staggered overseas release pattern in 2016, earning $64.7 million overseas in comparable markets at current rates. It was an original IP at the time, but has since gained massive fame through ancillary programs and on Disney+.

In terms of opening foreign leagues, we look at titles in similar markets and at current rates Find Dory ($107 million, 2016), Incredible 2 ($129 million, 2018) and Despicable me 4 ($135 million, 2024). Note that each of these was a summer release.

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A few weeks ago we were in something of a shaky international market, but recent events have dissipated Gladiator II And Bad have supplied gas to fuel the rest of the year. Notice that Bad has no new offshore openings in the coming week; it will be released in France, China and Germany in December, and in Japan in March next year.

The first Moana did its ultimate best figures in Japan, France, China, UK and Brazil.

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Gladiator II will remain the only destination for men for some time to come. The Thanksgiving 5-Day is estimated to cost approximately $45 million. Ridley Scott-directed film star Paul Mescal concluded its three-day opening on $55 million after one $13.6 million Sunday, -29% from Saturday. Given the long maturities of Gladiator II at 2½ hours and Bad, the hope is that scheduled movie theater visits will continue this weekend, and that’s the nature of these long-running titles a la Avatar: The Way of Water And Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.