After a big, soaking rain late last week mercifully ended the long drought in the three states, two more rain showers in this week’s weather forecast are likely to lead to a soggy Thanksgiving.

Addressing the region’s dramatic rainfall deficits that have led to water restrictions and drained reservoirs is great, but the timing is not ideal. It could rain on your parade in more ways than one.

The first rain shower will move through Tuesday morning, ahead of a cold front. The front is moving quickly, so it won’t rain all day and there won’t be much accumulation.

But a few quick rain showers are certainly possible, which could temporarily slow traffic. Those with pre-holiday travel plans may consider leaving in the afternoon or evening, after the rain has cleared.

Wednesday will be the busiest travel day this week (and probably of the year, as usual on the day before Thanksgiving), and it’s looking great in the Northeast. Anyone traveling along the East Coast can expect a rain-free ride.

Those who go to the Midwest may have bigger problems. By late afternoon and evening, showers and mixed precipitation will increase from Missouri to Ohio, making for messy travel weather.

The good news: If you spend Thanksgiving in the Midwest, the bad weather during the holiday will disappear. The bad news: That system will bring soggy weather to the Tri-State on Thursday.

Showers will fall early Thursday morning, so expect a rainy parade in New York City. If you plan to watch, you will need a rain poncho, waterproof boots and a warm jacket. Temperatures will remain around 40 degrees all morning. Combine that with the humid air and you will definitely feel the chill.

After the parade the showers will linger. That’s bad news for anyone looking to deep-fry their turkey (we may not know much about cooking, but we do know that oil and water don’t mix—so it’s best to have a backup plan ready).

Spotty showers will continue into Friday morning, so keep an umbrella handy if you plan on making Black Friday purchases. And while you’re shopping, treat yourself to that warm scarf and cozy hat you’ve been looking forward to. It may still be autumn, but the whole weekend feels like the middle of winter.

Stay warm and dry there!