Blake Snell becomes the first free agent in my top 10 to sign this winter, signing a five-year, $182 million deal with the Dodgers that gives the defending World Series champions a potential asset — as long as he can stay on the mound .

Snell entered free agency this winter after a shortened season with the Giants that included 20 starts and 104 innings pitched – the fifth time in his seven full seasons that he failed to qualify for the ERA title – but he is also coming off the best half season of his lifetime career. After a late start to his 2024 season and two IL stints due to adductor and groin injuries, he returned on July 9 and was the best pitcher in the National League from then on, throwing 80 innings with 114 strikeouts and 30 walks allowed. He didn’t allow a hit in seven of his 14 starts and struck out 38 percent of the batters he faced in that span. There was certainly some BABIP luck, as no one can sustain a .203 BABIP for very long, but his FIP in that smaller sample was only 1.77.

One of Snell’s starts in the second half was his first career no-hitter. (Katie Stratman/USA Today)

Snell has a huge arsenal, with a 95-97 mph fastball with good carry, a plus-plus curveball with a big horizontal break, and a changeup that doesn’t have much movement, but which he sells very well, so hitters don’t do that . t pick up. Statcast ranked the curveball as the fifth most valuable in the majors last year at +10 runs above average, even though Snell threw fewer curveballs than all four guys ahead of him on that list. The Dodgers may be confused by a pitcher who doesn’t get into the system and needs some dark magic field design that they use there.

That’s not to say Snell is risk-free, as he is one of the least durable starters of his caliber in baseball. He reached 130 innings only twice in his career, with a high of 180 2/3, although he pitched a full season both times and won the Cy Young Award. He has made 25 starts only three times.

The adductor injury he suffered in 2024 was his third such injury in four years, and he has had numerous other injuries as well, although he has never had arm injuries that cost him an entire year like a torn UCL. Getting Snell to a five-year deal one season after having to take a one-plus-option deal is a huge win for him and his agent Scott Boras, but that’s a huge investment in a starter who probably only makes 100 or more . therefore begins during the course of the contract.

The Dodgers have exactly no one on their roster who is confident of making 30 starts in 2025, so while Snell helps — he would help any baseball team — they still have too much variation in the likely bulk production of their rotation. This past season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto made 18 starts due to a shoulder injury. Tyler Glasnow started a career-best 22 games before suffering a sprained elbow and has already undergone Tommy John surgery. Bobby Miller made 13 starts, and we won’t talk about that anymore. Landon Knack made 12. Their leader in innings pitched and starts in 2024 was actually Gavin Stone, who is out for 2025 after shoulder surgery.

Yes, Shohei Ohtani should return to the mound this year, and I certainly won’t underestimate him, but I don’t think anyone should count on him making 25 starts in his first year after his second Tommy John surgery. Even as I write these last two paragraphs, I wonder if the Dodgers won the World Series this year. It seems unlikely.

Snell is the de facto ace for the Dodgers, at least for now, with Yamamoto, Glasnow, Ohtani and Knack or Miller making up the rest of the rotation on paper. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May could also play a role in completing their injury recovery. That said, they’re clearly going to get someone else. Maybe that’s Roki Sasaki, maybe it brings back Walker Buehler – whose medical records they know better than anyone – but I can’t believe that will be the only move the Dodgers will make for their rotation.

I had Snell as the fourth-best starter on the free agent market, behind Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Sasaki. The first two should be staggering if this is the going rate for a high-end starter; neither has Snell’s two Cy Young Awards, but Burnes has one, both are a year younger than Snell, and both have been more durable.

Sasaki’s market is limited by the silly rule that considers him an ‘amateur’ because he is under 25, even though he has played for several years in the highest leagues there are outside of the AL and NL, so this acquisition probably doesn’t affect him. not at all.

There are still far more teams that could use a top-shelf starter like the one I mentioned or Jack Flaherty than guys like that in this market, so teams like the Orioles, Mets, Red Sox and Tigers, to name a few. a few will either have to spend a lot of money to get the No. 1/No. 2 starters who need or miss them due to the limited supply.

(Top photo: Godofredo A. Vásquez / Associated Press)