While global smartphone sales are expected to grow to 1.24 billion units this year, Apple (AAPL+0.91%) performance has barely improved, a new study shows.

Apple and its rivals are expected to ship 6.2% more phones by 2024. This is reported by market research agency IDC. But Apple’s iPhone sales are expected to grow by just 0.4%, a small increase compared to competitors.

The good news for Apple is that the tech giant is still the industry’s earnings leader. Apple sells each of its smartphones for about $1,000, while Android rivals sell their phones collectively for about $295, according to the IDC. In October, $46.22 billion of Apple’s total revenue of $94.9 billion came from iPhone sales, which marked a 6% increase year over year.

The IDC said much of this year’s growth came from pent-up demand and regions where smartphones have not yet strongly penetrated the market. While Apple is expected to deliver better performance by 2025, more affordable devices from Android vendors have helped Chinese brands increase their sales.

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And despite new investments in artificial intelligence by companies like Apple, GooglingAnd Samsungcustomers aren’t really interested – yet.

“While GenAI remains a hot topic and top priority for many vendors, it is not yet having a major impact on demand and is leading to early upgrades,” IDC senior researcher Nabila Popal said in a statement.

Popal added that generative AI will “revolutionize the user experience,” noting that more investment is needed to make consumers more aware and interested in such features to drive demand and create the “super cycle” where the industry is looking for. The IDC believes that smartphones using generative AI will grow to 70% of the total smartphone market by 2028.

That is somewhat similar to what Jefferies (JEF-0.05%) analysts warned earlier this month. In a note following Apple’s third-quarter earnings report, Jefferies warned that iPhone sales momentum was likely due to an earlier launch of the iPhone 16 compared to the iPhone 15, noting that AI features likely won’t have an impact for now will have on the sale.

Apple has officially rolled it out new artificial intelligence featuresknown as Apple Intelligencefor users with the iPhone 15 Pro or iPhone 16 in October. CEO Tim Cook said Apple Intelligence “marks the beginning of a new chapter” for the company’s innovation and that new features, including ChatGPT integration, will roll out in December, with more to come in the future.

That staggered approach will likely start paying off in 2026 or 2027, Jefferies analysts said at the time, warning that “current expectations for Apple Intelligence to trigger a super upgrade cycle are too high.”

—Rocio Fabbro contributed to this article.