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Apple will miss the big smartphone market recovery in 2024, says IDC

(Bloomberg) — Global smartphone sales rebounded sharply in 2024 after two straight years of decline, but Apple Inc. (AAPL) barely managed to achieve growth, an independent study found, underscoring the speed at which Android-based rivals are gaining ground in China and emerging markets. markets.

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Apple and its rivals will ship 6.2% more phones, or an estimated 1.24 billion units, in 2024, according to market tracker IDC. But iPhone volumes were probably only 0.4% higher. Still, Apple remains by far the earnings leader with an average selling price of more than $1,000, while Android rivals combined for around $295, IDC estimates.

YICHANG, CHINA - OCTOBER 21, 2024 - Apple iPhone16 phones are on display at a store in Yichang, Hubei Province, China, October 21, 2024. According to research firm Counterpoint, sales of Apple Inc's new iPhone16 in the Chinese market increased by 20 in 2024 percent. the first three weeks after launch, compared to the iPhone15 in 2023. (Photo credit should be CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images)
Apple iPhone16 phones are displayed at a store in Yichang, Hubei province, China, October 21, 2024. (CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images) · CFOTO via Getty Images

The latest research highlights the uneven recovery of the smartphone market, which collapsed despite the advent of AI in the post-Covid era. Much of that growth in 2024 was due to pent-up demand and regions with lower smartphone penetration, IDC said. More affordable devices from Android vendors have allowed Chinese brands to better capitalize on that opportunity, while Apple is expected to do better next year.

The addition of improvements in artificial intelligence, a major theme among companies such as Samsung Electronics Co. (005930.KS, SSNLF), Apple and Google from Alphabet Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL), failed to excite consumers.

“While GenAI remains a hot topic and top priority for many vendors, it is not yet having a major impact on demand or driving early upgrades,” said Nabila Popal, research director at IDC. “More investment is needed to increase consumer awareness and introduce a ‘must have’ feature that draws consumers into the store and creates that super cycle that everyone is waiting for.”

Brands like Xiaomi Corp. (XIACY, 81810.HK) and Huawei Technologies Co. are investing in hardware and designing their own processors – in an effort to mitigate the threat or effects of US sanctions while adapting their designs to AI use cases. Huawei introduced its latest smartphone on Tuesday, powered by Chinese-made chips, while Xiaomi is preparing an in-house semiconductor for 2025 devices.

In China’s highly competitive market, where half a dozen companies trade in the top spot every quarter, large and long-lasting discounts boosted sales. These were more effective than last year, although concerns about the country’s ailing economy are likely to remain.