Models agree that the core of this system will slide off the coast and will likely generate some strong northeasterly winds, becoming a northeasterly wind. However, warmer ocean temperatures will bring rain to Greater Boston and most of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut.

Some snow or a wintry mix is ​​expected at higher elevations in Western Massachusetts and especially to the north. With this system, altitude will play a major role in terms of snow, as the coast and valleys will simply be too warm.

A winter storm watch has been issued for parts of Vermont, inland New Hampshire and southern Maine from early Thursday through Friday morning. Heavy, wet snow is expected in the higher elevations and foothills, reaching as much as 8 inches in some areas.

This storm system, which developed in the eastern Rockies a few days ago, is moving along a very active jet stream for this time of year that has been pushed further south. When it buckles this way, the air at the top level moves at different speeds, often creating bubbles. Surface low-pressure systems consist of rising air that fills the void in the upper atmosphere, “plugging” into the jet stream and typically traveling through the land where the jet stream is located. And New England is an immediate target.

The latest guidelines favor the center of the storm to follow just now off the Mid-Atlantic coast and close to southern New England and the Gulf of Maine in – technically this classifies this system as a nor’easter. But the storm will avoid becoming a full-scale blizzard regardless of exact trajectory. A low boundary to the north should allow the storm to move more freely eastward. This will likely move the storm quite quickly and provide modest force by fanning the storm.

Scattered showers will begin to fall across western New England in the early morning by Thanksgiving and increase and spread throughout the region throughout the morning. The wet weather will continue throughout the evening and taper off from late Thursday evening until Friday morning.

For this system, the atmosphere will contain a fair amount of moisture, but most of the snow will fall at higher elevations in New England. The valleys and coastal areas will only receive rain during this storm. That said, the rain-snow line will likely run along the Massachusetts and New Hampshire/Vermont borders, stretching diagonally from the Berkshires, through northern Worcester County to southern New Hampshire and the coast of Maine. Essentially west of Interstate I-191 and north of Route 2.

Southern New England Forecast

The latest rain-snow line trend has a line closer to the Massachusetts-Vermont/New Hampshire border, and perhaps a push further north. I expect a likely scenario of about an inch to an inch and a half of rain in southern New England. Within this system, heavier rainfall events will occur, which could result in a given area receiving much less or more rainfall than neighboring cities.

Gusty winds will spread across most of southern New England on Thanksgiving, with gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour for some areas. With warm air blowing from the ocean, this is another factor limiting snow potential.

Boston: Greater Boston There will be strict rain and gusty winds during Thanksgiving, starting shortly after sunrise and continuing steadily throughout the day. About an inch of rain is expected with this system. Wind gusts could reach 20 miles per hour or higher in the afternoon as winds shift to the east-northeast. The wind and rain should decrease around dinner time.

Western Mass: Higher elevations in Western Mass. could see 2 to 4 inches of snow if timing and temperatures align. Mounts Greylock and Everett could see slightly higher snow totals in the Berkshires.

Rhode Island: The Ocean State is also on the cusp of a strict rain event, with showers starting to fall around sunrise. Rain intensity will vary from light rain to heavier bursts. Much of the day will be spent with rain until it ends around mid-evening. Overall, rainfall in Providence, Pawtucket, Cranston, North Smithfield and south to Newport could range from about an inch to a few spots slightly above that. Wind gusts of 20 miles per hour or higher may occur on the south coast of Rhode Island in the afternoon.

Northern New England Forecast

Northern New England, especially the ski areas in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, should see significant snowfall on Thursday. About 2 to 4 inches are forecast for central and northern parts of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Higher elevations in between can push a little higher and land between 6 and 8 inches, with some spots even exceeding 10 inches. Rain will likely continue across southern and coastal areas of Northern New England, with some glimpses of a wintry mix overnight as temperatures drop.

Mountains of New Hampshire: Precipitation will begin mid-morning and last through Friday morning. The White Mountains north of Concord will likely experience accumulating snowfall for most or all of the storm’s duration. The higher the altitude, the higher the amount of snow, with a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. Plymouth, Lincoln, Franconia and Berlin could see snowfall totals between 2 and 8 inches.

Southern and Coastal New Hampshire: Rain should begin to fall around mid-morning, with much of the rain ending Thursday evening. Concord to Manchester should see a mostly rain event with the occasional wintry mix possible. Derry, Nashua, Exeter and Portsmouth should see strict rain with some wind gusts up to 30 miles per hour. Overall, rain totals should be between 0.75 and 1 inch.

Vermont: About 2 to 4 inches are forecast for central and northern parts of Vermont.

Regardless of how this storm develops as it pushes into New England on Thursday, you’ll want to make sure you take extra time on the roads and don’t rush to your destination. Snowfall in this system, like last week’s snowfall in New York, will depend on elevation.

Temperatures will certainly drop and become increasingly colder from Thursday and the weekend. Colder air will move in behind the system on Thursday as it moves through New England. Highs likely won’t reach the mid-40s until southern New England.

On Black Friday, temperatures will likely barely reach 40 degrees in some locations. The morning will be much colder as shoppers head out before dawn to score some early holiday bargains.

Behind the passing system Thursday, a deep pocket of high pressure will push south from Canada and deliver a shot of Arctic air over New England, sending high temperatures into the 30s by Sunday.

These coming storms, combined with the 1 to 7 inches of precipitation late last week, are expected to help alleviate severe drought conditions following an exceptionally dry fall. On November 17, Boston broke a 110-year record for its driest fall. Months of high pressure dominated the region, leading to extremely dry conditions across New England and an unprecedented number of wildfires in Massachusetts.

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Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.