Louisville Cardinals (3-1) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (4-0)

Battle 4 Atlantis quarterfinals

Playing time: Afternoon

Location: Imperial Arena: Paradise Island, Bahamas

Television: ESPN

Announcers: Beth Mowins (play-by-play) and Debbie Antonelli (analyst)

Favorite: Indiana with 2.5

Series: Indiana leads, 12-9

Last meeting: Indiana won 74-66 on November 20, 2023 in the Empire Classic 3rd place game in Brooklyn

Series history:

Projected starting lineups:

Louisville

• G Chucky Hepburn (6-2, 190, Sr.)
• G J’Vonne Hadley (6-6, 215, 5th)
• G/F Terrence Edwards Jr. (6-6, 205, 5th)
• F Noah Waterman (6-11, 230, 6th)
• C James Scott (6-11, 220, Sun.)

Indiana

• G Myles Rice (6-3, 185, R-So.)
• G Kanaan Carlyle (6-3, 182, Sun.)
• F Mackenzie Mgbako (6-9, 222, Sun.)
• F Malik Reneau (6-9, 232, Jr.)
• C Oumar Ballo (7-0, 265, R-Sr.)

Statistics:

Relevant videos:

Indiana’s season so far:

About Indiana:

It’s the fourth year of the Mike Woodson era in Bloomington and it feels like a make-or-break season when it comes to whether or not the IU alum is the right man to lead the Hoosiers back to what they believe is their rightful property. place at the top of the college basketball food chain.

Expectations are sky-high that the ‘make’ part of that equation will be cashed in thanks to the return of a handful of the most productive players from last season’s disappointing side, and the addition of some of the highest-rated players in the transfer portal. .

The 14th-ranked Hoosiers are off to a 4-0 start but looked disjointed at several points against a quartet of teams that didn’t pose much of a challenge.

So far, IU has led the way through former Louisville recruits Mackenzie Mgbakowhich is off to a flying start after a somewhat disappointing freshman campaign. The versatile 6’9 forward is averaging 18.8 ppg and scored a career-high 31 in the team’s season opener against SIU Edwardsville. Mgbako is the team’s best three-point shooter this season (53.3 percent) and has also been a monster offensively. Expect J’Vonne Hadley to be the man to slow down the super-talented sophomore and prevent him from creating a second chance for himself and others.

Washington State transfer guard Myles Rice has been given the task of directing the show and has done so successfully so far. He scored 20 or more points in each of IU’s last two games and totaled 18 assists. Rice, like a handful of guys on this IU team, has struggled a bit with turnovers this season (3.3 per game), which has led Woodson to pair him with more Trey Galloway recently to have multiple distributors on the floor at the same time and allow Rice to focus more on scoring than running the show. Galloway is less of a scoring threat, but he leads the team with 5.3 assists per game.

Big man transfer in Arizona Omar Ballo was Woodson’s biggest addition of the offseason, both figuratively and literally. The 7-foot senior has 34 career double-doubles and is the elite rim protector and return to basket scorer that Louisville is so clearly missing this season. He pairs with 6’9 junior Malik Reneau (13.5 ppg) to create perhaps the toughest frontcourt Louisville will face this season.

Ballo is currently averaging minutes, and with Indiana about to play three games in three days, it will be interesting to see if Woodson tries to spread out some lineups with Reneau occupying the five while Ballo gets some extended rest .

Louisville and Indiana are as close to exact opposites as you will see in this tournament. Case in point: IU has shot the three well this season, but they haven’t done it often. While they are hitting the outside shot at a 35.7 percent clip, only 30.4 percent of their field goal attempts are coming from beyond the arc. That is 343rd place on the rankings of 364 DI teams. Even though Louisville is making just 29.4 percent of its three shots, it is taking a higher percentage of its shots from deep than all but one other team in the country.

Indiana has a clear advantage when it comes to size and physicality. If the Hoosiers execute accordingly, they should be able to consistently score around the rim without much resistance from a Louisville team that struggles with interior defense against MUCH smaller foes.

U of L should probably be able to speed up the game. Indiana is currently playing at a faster pace (85th in pace) than ever under Woodson. A high possession game with a high number of live turnovers and transition opportunities should open the door for a Louisville upset.

There are three main reasons for optimism here:

1) Indiana struggles with turnovers and Louisville thrives when it comes to rotating teams. The Cardinals arrive in the Bahamas ranked fourth nationally in opponent turnover percentage and will immediately face a team that gives the ball away on 18.9 percent of its offensive possessions. Chucky Hepurn is fourth in the nation in steals per game and could absolutely make life miserable for the Hoosier guards.

2) Indiana wasn’t great on the defensive glass. Neither does Louisville, but that’s a concern for the other side of the floor. Pat Kelsey loves to crash five guys on the offensive glass, and in this game, that philosophy should result in a number of second chance opportunities.

3) Louisville needs to get an open look from the outside. Challenging IU on the perimeter probably won’t end well for most of the guys on U of L’s roster. Fortunately, the Hoosiers have struggled pretty consistently on perimeter defense through the opening weeks of the season. In the half-court, U of L’s versatile forwards and bigs should be able to push Indiana’s interior defenders out of their comfort zone, which should result in open looks from the outside. I know it’s hard for a lot of people to accept, but this is a game where if the 45 cards look right out of three, they have to try all 45.

Everyone says it with me: I have to take pictures.

An important note here is that this game is just as important for Indiana as it is for Louisville. While the Cardinals need to pile up quality wins (and position themselves to play quality opponents the rest of the tournament) due to the ACC’s lack of success so far this season, the Hoosiers need to do so due to the lack of pop on their not conference schedule. IU has already moved on from an average South Carolina, but now has no other scheduled non-con games against teams ranked in the top 80 on KenPom (outside of Louisville).

Indiana fans have sometimes been frustrated by their team’s lack of effort and focus so far this season. You wouldn’t think something like that would be a problem in a game of this size. If so, Louisville should take advantage. The Cardinals probably aren’t any more talented from top to bottom than this Hoosier team, but beating them would go a long way toward pulling off the most important win of the young Kelsey era to date.

notable:

—In its history, Louisville has 31 regular-season tournament championships. The Cardinals have lost five straight regular-season tournament games after going 0-3 at the 2022 Maui Invitational and 0-2 at last year’s Empire Classic.

—Louisville has a 6-2 all-time record in the Battle 4 Atlantis, and is 4-2 in tournament matches played in the Bahamas. The Cardinals made it to the championship game in both of their previous appearances: U of L lost to Duke in the 2012 title game and to Baylor in the 2016 title game.

—Louisville enters Battle 4 Atlantis ranks sixth in the country in three-point attempts per game (34.0), seventh in turnovers forced per game (19.0) and 14th in turnover margin (6.8).

—Louisville has 11 players who were on teams that played in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. The squad has made a total of 14 NCAA Division I Tournament appearances at their previous schools and played in 20 NCAA Tournament games throughout their careers.

—Louisville has a 254-80 record against non-conference opponents over the past 23 seasons (including postseason).

—Indiana doesn’t have a mascot. Isn’t that strange? Have you ever thought about that?

—Louisville is 2-4 in games against Indiana played at a neutral site.

—As head coach, Pat Kelsey is 0-13 against opponents in the AP top 25 poll. He is 0-1 in such games at Louisville. Indiana is currently ranked No. 14 in the poll.

—The Battle 4 Atlantis winner has won the NCAA Championship twice: the 2017-18 Villanova Wildcats and the 2018-19 Virginia Cavaliers.

—Louisville is 221-15 over the past 21 seasons and 2-0 this season when scoring 80 points or more.

—Louisville is 14-0 over the last ten seasons, limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.

—Since 2004, Louisville is 130-0 when leading by more than 10 points at halftime.

—Louisville is 115-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.

—Louisville has won 163 straight games while holding an opponent under 50 points.

Ken Pomeroy prediction: Indiana 77, Louisville 73