NEEDHAM, Mass., November 26, 2024 – According to the latest International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, global smartphone shipments are expected to grow 6.2% year-over-year to 1.24 billion units in 2024. This strong growth follows two years of sharp declines and is fueled by pent-up demand for device upgrades. While 2024 will see a strong recovery, growth is expected to slow to low single digits from 2025 onwards, with a CAGR of 2.6% (2023-2028). Contributing factors include increasing smartphone penetration, longer refresh cycles and headwinds from the fast-growing used smartphone market.

“While GenAI remains a hot topic and top priority for many vendors, it is not yet having a major impact on demand or leading to early upgrades.” says Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “While we continue to believe that GenAI will revolutionize the user experience in the coming years, more investment is needed to increase consumer awareness and introduce a ‘must have’ feature that will rush consumers to the store and break that super cycle create what everyone is waiting for. For now, we expect GenAI smartphones to take their place in premium flagship devices and continue to drop in price points to quickly grow to 70% of the smartphone market by 2028.”

Android’s rapid 7.6% year-on-year growth, focused on APeJC, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and China, especially on low-end devices, is key to this 6.2% growth year. In contrast, iOS is expected to grow by a modest 0.4% in 2024. Despite record performance in emerging markets like India, Apple faces challenges in major markets like China, the US and Europe. Looking ahead to 2025, the tides will turn as iOS is expected to grow 3.1% year-over-year, surpassing Android’s predicted 1.7% growth over the same period.

“New foldable phone models continue to make headlines despite low market volumes,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “In the third quarter, foldable product volumes fell 7.4%, even as most of the world’s leading suppliers launched new models. Still, foldables will grow 10.5% in 2024 and maintain double-digit growth through 2028 with a five-year CAGR of 15.9%. The growth rate is slowing as Chinese vendors (who drive this segment) shift their focus and investments to GenAI smartphones and the lack of unique use cases are also dampening growth.”

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For more information about IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, contact Jackie Kliem at 508-988-7984 and [email protected].

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International Data Corporation (IDC) is the leading global provider of market information, advisory services and events for the information technology, telecommunications and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC provides global, regional and local expertise in technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in more than 110 countries. IDC’s analytics and insights help IT professionals, business leaders and the investment community make fact-based technology decisions and achieve their most important business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world’s leading tech media, data and marketing services company. For more information about IDC, visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.

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