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The 49ers’ path to the playoffs is murky: Is Sunday a must-win?
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The 49ers’ path to the playoffs is murky: Is Sunday a must-win?

SANTA CLARA, California – As captain and one of the longest-tenured players for the San Francisco 49ers, tight end George Kittle not only always exudes maximum optimism and confidence. He lives it, breathes it and never stops trying to inject his positive energy into the locker room.

After a 38-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, Kittle walked to the podium for his autopsy and was asked if that optimism would ever wane, especially in light of the team’s worst loss since 2018.

“Why would it?” Kittel said. “We are not where we want to be by any means. Losing at 28 is terrible. We don’t want to do that. But all my optimism is not broken.

“We still have a lot of very talented players. We’ll get some guys back and I still have full confidence in the coaching staff to put our guys in position to make plays and I don’t have to worry about that. But definitely an uphill move.” grind and see what we’re made of, which I’m looking forward to.”

While optimism is an essential part of Kittle’s job description, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for anyone on the outside to believe that these 49ers have another finishing touch like they’ve found in their back pockets in recent seasons.

The loss to the Packers dropped the 49ers to 5-6, putting them under. 500 for the first time in Week 12 or later since the injury-plagued, playoff-less 2020 season. And while they got some help in the NFC West division (Rams and Cardinals lost) to stay just one game out of first place , the 49ers are running out of time to get healthy and/or fix the issues that have persisted this season.

Even if the Niners stop conceding silly penalties, turning the ball over, missing tackles, being disastrous on special teams and all their other pressing problems, nothing will be easy against the remaining schedule that ESPN’s Football Power Index has on ranks third most difficult. the N.F.L.

That starts with a cross-country trip to face the 9-2 Buffalo Bills (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), but also includes a Dec. 30 home meeting with the No. 1 Detroit Lions (10-1).

The Bills, who have yet to lose at home this season, are averaging the third-most points per game (29.1) in the NFL. Their defense is allowing 19.5 points per game (seventh best).

All of this leaves the Niners barely hanging on to what’s left of their playoff hopes.

FPI gives them a 17% chance of making the postseason with a 13.6% chance of winning the division, which ranks behind both the Cardinals (49%) and the Seahawks (24.9%). FTN’s DVOA further impacts San Francisco’s chances, granting it an 11.5% postseason possibility with a 7.9% chance of claiming the NFC West and a 3 .6% on a wildcard berth.

While the 49ers didn’t stare long playoff chances in the face until 2021 and reached the NFC Championship Game, this group has little to no room for error the rest of the way. They might be able to overcome just one loss. Two would probably be a death knell.

“We know what’s coming. We know exactly what that playoff situation is. That’s what it is,” coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday. “But the only thing that really matters is this week. If you have to run and get a lot of wins to even think about that, then you better make sure you only think about one thing and that’s Buffalo .”

Since San Francisco is 1-3 in the division and the best they can do is 3-3, they will likely need help in the event of a tie. From a wild card perspective, a 3-5 record against NFC foes won’t serve the Niners well either.

Of course, any such discussion about help from elsewhere is dependent on them stringing together wins over the last six weeks, something that hasn’t happened all year: they have already won two games in a row this season.

After the Week 9 bye, the 49ers hoped the return of Christian McCaffrey would boost them. So far that has not happened. He is averaging 93.7 scrimmage yards through three games with no touchdowns.

An argument could be made that San Francisco is now not only worse for wear than it was before McCaffrey returned, but has even more problems.

For example, the 49ers are averaging 8.7 penalties per game since the bye, ranking eighth in the NFL during that span. Suddenly, they rank 21st in the NFL in total penalties, with many of those flags coming in costly situations.

The 49ers have added minus-8.31 expected points in offensive penalties (26th) and minus-8.21 EPA in defensive penalties (28th) while losing four of their games by a total of 14 points.

“We have to be a lot better on the penalty kill,” Shanahan acknowledged. “If you miss some guys, you have to be better.”

Maybe Sunday’s big loss to Green Bay was easy to see coming because of who the Niners didn’t have.

But they are optimistic they will get quarterback Brock Purdy (right shoulder) back on Wednesday, as he made light throws on Monday without any problems. End Nick Bosa (left oblique) and tackle Trent Williams (ankle) will be listed as day-to-day after missing Sunday’s game.

The practice window for linebacker Dre Greenlaw (torn Achilles) has opened and he will practice for the first time on Wednesday. Cornerback Charvarius Ward (personal) could also return this week. But this season has often reminded us that as soon as one player returns, two more could suffer an injury.

“I hope the boys here will take care of their body matters during the day and a half they’re away from us. We’ll be back on Wednesday… ready to fight because that’s all we can do right now. fight with all of us,” Shanahan said Monday. “And I’ll be very surprised that not every man in this building, when I see them on Wednesday, isn’t ready for exactly that mentality that we need to have to achieve what we think we can do.”

Kittle, Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner believe they have the guys in the locker room to make another push toward the postseason. Even when the evidence proves otherwise.

“We have really good players who have been in difficult positions before and we have to start winning some games,” Bosa said. “So we win and make the season what we wanted from the start, or we let it get away from us. But we are going to push as hard as we can.”