Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I blog about the stats I used that week on Barstool Sports Advisors, plus some others I found during my research for each game we covered. Whenever I review the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical trends. For example, a team with a very good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? It probably doesn’t matter that much. Teams change all the time, and there’s nothing to indicate that the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach who is really well off during a bye week? That says something. A team that covers a lot as a road dog? This probably means they are consistently undervalued. League-wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups over years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at each metric individually and decide whether it matters.

Below is my full cheat sheet I used for advisors this week. Rules courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change as of the time I put this together (Monday morning).

LW: 0-5 (but I was wearing a new fedora, so that doesn’t really count)

YTD: 33-28 (33-23 with typical fedora)

Chicago Bears (4-7, 5-4-2 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (10-1, 9-2 ATS)

12:30 pm on CBS

DET-10.5

T 48.5

The Lions continue to absolutely destroy teams, so betting against them is always a risk. But the data tells us that double-digit dogs in divisional matches since 2022 are 16-8 ATS. The Lions also haven’t won on Thanksgiving since 2016. Perhaps because they play such physical and tough football under Dan Campbell, they struggle to turn around and play on just 3 days’ rest? That’s just a theory, not a statistic!

The statistics say: Bears

New York Giants (2-9, 2-8-1 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-7, 3-7-1 ATS)

4:30 PM on FOX

DAL-4

T38.5

This is a tough game to find meaningful trends for when both teams are playing losing seasons with backup QBs. But here’s a statistic: The Giants absolutely suck. No amount of data could ever make me bet on it. Just take the Cowboys.

The statistics/common sense say: Cowboys

Miami Dolphins (5-6, 5-6 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3, 5-6 ATS)

8:20 PM on NBC

GB-3.5

T 47.5

The Dolphins’ team total is 21.5 points. Tua is averaging 29 PPG for the Dolphins since returning from his injury and with Mike McDaniel as his head coach he is averaging 26 PPG heading back into 2022. I know it’s scary because of the cold weather in Green Bay , but they look great. much better and can reach 22 points.

The statistics say: Dolphins team total more than 21.5 points

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3, 8-3 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-7, 6-5 ATS)

1 p.m. on CBS

CIN-2.5

T47

This is a trend that has absolutely blown my balls away. The Bengals have a bye week and it will be a fortnight since their last game. The Steelers are coming from TNF and it will have been ten days since their last game. In matches where both teams have at least 10 days’ rest, the under has hit 14 times in a row!!!! Dazzling. And it’s 27-4 over the last 31. Amazing.

The statistics say: Below

San Francisco 49ers (5-6, 4-7 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (9-2, 7-4 ATS)

8:20 PM on NBC (Sunday)

BUF-6.5

T46

As of the time we recorded this on Monday morning, it’s unclear if Purdy will be back for the 49ers, which complicates things. So if we just focus on the Bills, we see that the over has been hit in eight consecutive Buffalo home games, averaging 52 PPG. That could happen regardless of who starts at QB for San Francisco.

The statistics say: About

If you missed the sloppy Thanksgiving advisors, you can catch up now.

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