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    • Could Group of Five keep Colorado out of the College Football Playoff?
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    Could Group of Five keep Colorado out of the College Football Playoff?

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    Colorado football is enjoying a resurgence in its second season under coach Deion Sanders.

    A program that had not been nationally relevant for much of the 21st century became one of college football’s most-watched teams in 2023, as the Buffaloes started 3-0 before flaming out the rest of the game and eight of them dropped. their last nine games.

    This season, that breathless media attention has led to results on the field.

    REQUIRED READING: Deion Sanders: Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter will play in the Colorado Football Bowl game

    Led by Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, Colorado is 8-3 heading into Friday’s regular season finale against Oklahoma State at Folsom Field in Boulder. Although they dropped out of the American LBM Coaches Poll after a 37-21 loss last Saturday at Kansas, the Buffs are tied at the top of the Big 12 standings at four points, theoretically giving them a path to the championship game into the conference and from there, a spot in the College Football Playoff.

    While Colorado’s season has undoubtedly been a success, it enters the final week of the regular season with some uncertainty about what lies ahead following its meeting with Mike Gundy’s Cowboys.

    Here’s what you need to know about the Buffs’ path to the Big 12 championship game and why a win there might not guarantee them a spot in the 12-team playoffs:

    REQUIRED READING: Deion Sanders reverses Travis Hunter’s omission as Thorpe Award finalist

    Can Colorado make it to the Big 12 championship game?

    The Buffs still have a shot at making it to the Big 12 championship game, although they will need some help to do so.

    Colorado is tied with No. 15 Arizona State, No. 17 Iowa State and No. 20 BYU atop the conference standings, with each team having a 6–2 record in the league. The Buffs have not played any of these three teams this season, making a head-to-head tiebreaker moot.

    As things stand, Sanders’ team has a few options to reach Arlington, Texas, all of which require a win against Oklahoma State:

    • At least two of the other three first-place teams must lose, giving the Buffs either an independent first-place spot or a tie for first place with a 7-2 record.
    • BYU loses to Houston, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Baylor beats Kansas and Cincinnati beats TCU, which would put Colorado in a tie with Iowa State and Arizona State but send the Buffs to the Big 12 championship game against the Cyclones due to the conference tiebreakers.
    • BYU loses to Houston, Texas Tech beats West Virginia and Baylor of Cincinnati loses, pushing the Buffs into a title game with Arizona State.

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    Could Colorado win the Big 12 and miss the College Football Playoff?

    Believe it or not, it is a possibility.

    The 12-team College Football Playoff reserves spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions, with the top four byeing to the quarterfinals in the first round. When the expanded playoff was first conceived, it was widely believed that the champion of a Power Four conference would essentially be guaranteed a spot in the field, especially considering there are only nine viable FBS conferences after the breakup from the Pac-12 to just two teams.

    As this season has shown, that’s not a safe bet.

    Every team in the Big 12 has at least two losses. The highest-rated team in the most recent playoff selection committee rankings, Arizona State, is ranked No. 16, five spots behind Boise State and just one spot ahead of No. 17 Tulane in the most recent CFP Top 25. Meanwhile, Big Ten – Leading Oregon is No. 1, SEC-leading Texas is No. 3 and Miami, the top-ranked ACC team, is No. 6, putting each of these Power Five leagues in a safe position to to be represented in the play-off.

    If Boise State remains undefeated the rest of the way and wins the Mountain West Conference, it would finish with fewer losses than Colorado. In that scenario, the Buffs would be 10-3 while the Broncos would be 12-1, making it possible for the Broncos to get a fourth and final first-round bye.

    As things stand now, Colorado, at No. 25 in the playoff rankings, is 14 spots behind Boise State.

    However, the Buffaloes received a gift from Memphis on Thursday after the Tigers upset Tulane, moving them to 9-3 on the season. Assuming Colorado beats Oklahoma State on Friday and gets the help it needs to make the Big 12 championship game, it would still be in play to earn the final automatic qualifying spot in the 12-team bracket before the AAC -champion.

    That scenario depends on several factors, including how Tulane and Colorado fare in their hypothetical conference title games. It would also likely require the CFP selection committee to drop the Green Wave below Colorado in the penultimate rankings.

    The Buffs still have a path to the playoffs, but they (or whoever wins the Big 12) have some hurdles along the way.

    REQUIRED READING: Can Colorado clinch the Big 12 Championship, CFP? What’s next for the Buffaloes after the loss to Kansas

    Big 12 championship tiebreakers

    Like the SEC and Big Ten, the newly expanded Big 12 has no divisions, meaning the top two teams in the reconfigured 16-team league make it to the conference championship game.

    Since Colorado needs some help getting to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, here’s a look at the conference’s various moves to break ties in the standings:

    • The teams with a tie are compared based on their mutual performance during the season.
    • The tied teams are compared to all regular conference opponents based on winning percentage.
    • The tied teams will be compared against the next highest ranked common opponent in the standings based on winning percentage (based on record in all matches played within the Conference) and progress through the standings.
    • The tied teams are compared based on the combined winning percentage in conference games of conference opponents.
    • The tied teams are compared based on total wins in a 12-game season.
    • The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team rating score) following the final weekend of regular season play.
    • The representative is chosen by a coin toss.

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