Iowa’s offensive line vs. Nebraska’s defensive line among matchups to watch in the Heroes Trophy game

IOWA CITY — The Heroes Trophy has stood in the atrium of the Hansen Football Performance Center in Iowa for eight of the past nine years.

But the rivalry between Iowa and Nebraska was much closer than these results would suggest. The last six games between Iowa and Nebraska have been decided by seven or fewer points. That includes three-point wins at Iowa in 2018, 2019 and 2023.

Nebraska also appears to have a better reputation in Matt Rhule’s second year as head coach than what the Hawkeyes endured on Black Friday in previous years. The Huskers will be eligible to play bowling for the first time since 2016.

Here are three keys that can help the Hawkeyes keep the Heroes Trophy on Evashevski Drive:

Iowa’s offensive line vs. Nebraska’s defensive line

The better Kaleb Johnson does, the better Iowa does as a whole.

When Iowa’s star running back rushes for at least 100 yards, the Hawkeyes are 7-1. If he doesn’t meet that goal, the Hawkeyes will be 0-3.

The battle at the line of scrimmage in front of Johnson – Iowa’s offensive line versus Nebraska’s defensive line – could be a major factor in whether Johnson has a UCLA-like 49-yard performance or a Maryland-like 164-yard performance.

Iowa’s offensive line (and run blocking in particular) has been a strength for this 2024 team. Even with Gennings Dunker still recovering from his injury, Iowa is expected to start five offensive linemen against the Huskers , each of whom has at least 19 career starts.

But Nebraska’s defensive front is also formidable. The Huskers have allowed 3.61 yards per rushing attempt, which ranks 25th nationally. The only teams on Iowa’s schedule that have a better average are Ohio State and UCLA, and neither of those games fared well because of Iowa’s rushing attack (or for the Hawkeyes in general).

Who will win the sales battle?

Turnovers have often been the deciding factor in recent games between Iowa and Nebraska.

A year ago in Lincoln, Cedar Rapids native Ethan Hurkett’s interception in the final minute was crucial en route to the Hawkeyes’ 13-10 victory over Nebraska. Two years ago, Iowa’s four goals were fatal in the 24-17 loss to the Huskers at Kinnick Stadium.

Even further back in time, the team that won the turnover battle lifted the Heroes Trophy in four consecutive games. (The turnover battle was tied in 2019 when Iowa won, 27-24, on a 48-yard field goal by Keith Duncan with one second left).

Fortunately for Iowa fans, the Hawkeyes are tied for eighth nationally (and lead the Big Ten) in average turnover margin. Nebraska, on the other hand, is tied for 57th nationally and 10th in the Big Ten in the metric.

Does Iowa (again) claim the special teams advantage?

Playing one big special teams can often be crucial in a rivalry that has been as competitive as this one.

In 2023, Iowa pulled away with a 13-10 win on Marshall Meeder’s game-winning 38-yard field goal as time expired.

Looking back at 2021, Iowa’s third-quarter punt block — blocked by Henry Marchese and returned by Kyler Fisher for a touchdown — was the turning point as the Hawkeyes overcame a 21-9 deficit late in the third quarter to ultimately win. , 28-21.

Iowa has certainly benefited from some big special teams plays this year, whether it was Kaden Wetjen’s 85-yard punt return for a touchdown against Northwestern or Drew Stevens’ program-record tying five field goals against Maryland. However, Iowa has also given up some big special teams games this season, such as the punt returns to Troy and Northwestern for touchdowns.

If the Hawkeyes can claim the special teams advantage they’ve claimed in previous Heroes Trophy games (and avoid the inconsistencies from earlier in the season), it could go a long way in this year’s regular season finale.

Prediction

Iowa appears to be the superior team on paper (and there’s a reason why sportsbooks have Iowa as a 5.5-point favorite), but this has the potential to be a tough matchup for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa 21, Nebraska 20

Comments: [email protected]

Sign up for our curated Iowa Hawkeyes athletics newsletter at thegazette.com/hawks.