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Inside Dolphins QB’s poor record

Vaseline November 29, 2024

The Miami Dolphins are looking to make a late-season playoff push in 2024 and enter their Thanksgiving game with the Green Bay Packers having won three straight games.

Miami is now just a game and a half back of No. 7 in the AFC wild-card standings and could potentially sneak in if the Dolphins can keep winning.

To do that, the Dolphins will have to stay warm despite playing some games in cold weather. That’s something the team has struggled with throughout history, especially with Tua Tagovailoa as the team’s starting quarterback.

Tagovailoa has yet to win an NFL game in which the starting temperature was below 45 degrees. His performance in those games left a lot to be desired, so much so that he brought it up prior to his Week 13 game against the Packers.

“I’m excited to destroy stories,” Tagovailoa told reporters, referencing his unimpressive cold weather stats. ‘Let’s go. Bring it on.’

Here’s what you need to know about Tagovailoa’s career stats in cold-weather games as he prepares for another one at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving.

Tua Tagovailoa cold weather statistics

According to data from Pro Football Reference, Tagovailoa has played in seven games with temperatures of 45 degrees or lower.

Tagovailoa has an 0-7 record in those games. His other stats aren’t much better, as you can see below.

Completion rate: 135 of 243 (55.6%)
Passing yards: 1,687
Passing TDs: 8
INTs: 10
Recruit/attempt: 6.9
Assessment of passers-by: 71.13

Tagovailoa’s average of 241 passing yards per game in these cold-weather contests is respectable, but he’s struggled to consistently lead his team to points. The Dolphins are averaging 16.4 points per game in cold weather games while allowing 32.4 points per game.

Tagovailoa has also recorded more touchdown passes than interceptions in just two of his seven appearances in weather below 45 degrees.

Tua Tagovailoa stats in all other games

Perhaps the most shocking part of Tagovailoa’s cold-weather drop is his performance in all other games.

Tagovailoa has appeared in 54 career games (52 starts) in which the temperature did not dip below 45 degrees. In those games, he has a 36-16 record and a passer rating that is 30 points higher than his cold weather rating.

Below are Tagovailoa’s full stats from those matches:

Completion rate: 1,151 of 1,666 (69.1%)
Passing yards: 12,911
Passing TDs: 87
INTs: 32
Recruit/attempt: 7.7
Assessment of passers-by: 101.35

For those wondering, Tagovailoa is averaging 239.1 yards per game in these contests, just 1.9 yards per game less than what he averages in the cold weather games. He’s doing so with significantly better rating metrics, so it’s abundantly clear that Tagovailoa prefers warmer conditions.

In many ways, that makes Tagovailoa an ideal fit as Miami’s quarterback. But to achieve the team’s goal of competing for a Super Bowl, the Dolphins need him to step up his game when the temperature drops.

Tagovailoa will have a chance to prove himself in that regard this Thanksgiving.

Packers vs. Dolphins Thanksgiving Weather Forecast

According to Weather.com, it will be cold during the Packers vs. Dolphins Thanksgiving Game.

Below are the full details of Thursday’s forecast for Green Bay:

High temperature: 32 degrees
Low temperature: 19 degrees
Chance of precipitation: 3%
Wind: 10-25 km/hour

The Dolphins have won just one game in the past 32 years when temperatures dropped below 75 degrees. That will leave Miami fans hoping the temperature can remain on the higher side of the specified range until the game is over.