The No. 3 Texas Longhorns have one final game between them and their goals for the season, a rivalry game more than a decade in the making. The Longhorns head to College Station and Kyle Field for their fourth road game of the year, taking on the Texas A&M Aggies.

This rivalry game always has high stakes, with bragging rights on the line for the next twelve months. Since it is also a play-in game for this year’s SEC Championship game, which would be a first for both teams, the stakes couldn’t possibly be higher.

Resist the emotional wave

While there are many statistical categories to look at, this is probably the biggest key to the game. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian talks about “playing with emotion, but not emotional” and this play is one of the most emblematic of that axiom. Texas has played just three road games this year, two of which took place in some of the unfriendly conditions known to college football; Michigan in Ann Arbor and Arkansas in Fayetteville.

None of these matchups have the emotional resonance nor the stakes of this game in the final week of the regular season. The closest emotional wave is probably the Cotton Bowl against the Oklahoma Sooners, but the team they faced in Dallas isn’t as strong as the team Texas will play in College Station. With a capacity of nearly 103,000 fans, every seat will be filled for the rivalry match that has been 13 years in the making. Add to that a spot in the SEC Championship game and managing emotions will be key.

Can Texas run the ball?

Perhaps the biggest indicator of success for Texas A&M is how well their defense plays the run and their opponents’ ability to win at the line of scrimmage. In their eight wins, the Aggies held their opponents to an average of 95 rushing yards; in four of those wins they held their opponents within 100 yards. The highest in a win is 125 yards against Mississippi State, which coincidentally is the most an opponent has scored against A&M in a losing effort. In their four losses, that number rises to 217 yards, an average that includes two of their last three, giving up 286 to South Carolina and 168 to Auburn.

Despite some of the Longhorns’ frustrations on the ground, they have been relatively consistent in moving the ball whenever they can keep hold of it. In two of the last three games, the Longhorns have gone for over 200 yards on the ground, rushing for 210 against Arkansas and 250 against Kentucky. Perhaps the most frustrating stretch for Texas has been back-to-back weeks against Georgia and Vanderbilt, one loss and one close loss, which were also their two worst rushing performances of the year.

Take care of the football

The two best units on the field Saturday are undoubtedly the defense, both of which excel at turning opponents over via interception. Texas jumped to 17th this year with two against Kentucky, good enough for No. 2 in the country, while Texas A&M ranks No. 24 with 12. That interception total includes three games with three interceptions, and all three came against SEC opponents. – Florida, Arkansas and LSU. While that number gives the Aggies a plus-four in turnover margin on the year, they are minus-two over the last five games, throwing at least one interception in four of the last five games.

Texas even hovered on the turnover margin early this year but has excelled in SEC play, forcing 13 turnovers in the last five games, 10 of which came via interception. The Horns have also struggled to keep the ball all year, with nine lost fumbles and at least one remaining regular season game leaving them headed for their worst year since 2016.