Happy Black Friday! Today we have a loaded College Football slate on tap with 14 games to choose from. Let’s see where smart money is heading using our VSiN CFB betting splits, updated every 10 minutes and sourced directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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Navy (7-3) has lost three of their last four games and was just crushed by Tulane 35-0, failing to cover the 7.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, East Carolina (7-4) is on a four-game win streak and just defeated North Texas 40-28, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened roughly with a pick’em, with some stores even opening Navy as a short 1-point road favorite. The audience is divided down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take or lay down the points. Despite this even ticket count, we’ve seen the line move to East Carolina -2.5 at home. In a vacuum, a line should not move at all if the bets are equal, because the oddsmakers theoretically have a balanced action and have no reason to adjust the price. So we know based on the line movement that pro money has sided with the home team. East Carolina receives just 52% of the spread bets, but a whopping 80% of the dollars spread at DraftKings, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” betting split. At Circa Sports, East Carolina receives 71% of the spread bets, but 95% of the spread dollars, another discrepancy, so to speak. Those who want to follow the sharp move, but are also wary of laying points in what could be a close game, might instead choose to play East Carolina on the moneyline (-135). East Carolina receives 47% of the moneyline bets but 62% of the moneyline dollars at DraftKings, further evidence of smart money banking on ECU to win the game right away.

Minnesota (6-5) has dropped two straight games but held steady against Penn State, losing 26-25 but covering a 12-point home dog. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (5-6) has lost four straight games and just got rolled by Nebraska 44-25, failing to cover the 1.5-point road dogs. This line started with Wisconsin as the home favorite by 2 points. The crowd enjoys playing at home against Wisconsin, which is fighting for bowl eligibility. Despite 62% of spread bets holding Wisconsin at DraftKings, we’ve seen this line flip en route to Minnesota -1. This signals a sharp “dog to favorite” line move in favor of Minnesota, as the line has moved toward the Golden Gophers despite being an unpopular play. At Circa Sports, Minnesota takes 41% of the spread bets but 85% of the spread dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper professional bets backing the road team. The Golden Gophers have the better offense (26.5 PPG vs. 24 PPG) and a stingier defense (allowing 18.5 PPG vs. 23 PPG). Sharps also expects a lower-scoring game, as the total has been reduced from 44 to 40.5. The under receives only 25% of the bets, but 52% of the dollars at DraftKings, a sharply opposed betting split of “low bets, higher dollars.” Weather could play a role here, as the forecast calls for low 20s with 15 MPH winds, making this a “windy under” system match. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the downwind has been about 55% for the past decade.

Stanford (3-8) has dropped seven of their last eight games, falling just short against California 24-21 but managing to cover 15-point road dogs. Likewise, San Jose State (6-5) has lost three of their last four games, falling just short to UNLV 27-16, failing to get a 7.5-point home dog. This line opened with San Jose State as low as a pick’em. Sharps and public bettors have both sided with the home team, giving San Jose State a -2.5 win. San Jose State receives 67% of the spread bets and 74% of the spread dollars at DraftKings. At Circa, San Jose State receives 80% of the spread bets and 94% of the spread dollars. In both cases, the Spartans take “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe support. Those looking to limit some risk around a key number can instead play San Jose State on the moneyline at -135. At DraftKings, San Jose State takes 68% of moneyline bets, but 83% of moneyline dollars. Stanford is just 1-4 on the road this season. San Jose State is 4-2 at home. The Spartans have a superior offense (26.9 PPG vs. 22.1 PPG) and a better defense (allowing 26 PPG vs. 33.6 PPG).