The Northern Territory is a different place. The day before this election, Speckles, the Adelaide River crocodile, was asked to predict the outcome of the election. He had replaced the previous crocodile, a spiv who had misjudged the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Speckles decided that Eva Lawler, the Secretary of Labor, would win the election. Speckles wasn’t the only prognosticator who got it wrong. I fear for his future.

The Country Liberal Party (CLP) won a majority government, returning to power after eight years in opposition. Some constituencies recorded double-digit numbers against Labor. Lawler lost the government and her own seat.

Instead, CLP leader Lia Finocchiaro will become the territory’s next prime minister and will govern by a majority of votes.

A tale of two elections

Yesterday, two elections were effectively held for the NT Legislative Assembly. The first was in the Bush constituencies.

These areas are dominated by Aboriginal communities, who often struggle with poverty, poor housing, inadequate health facilities, failing education facilities and a lack of employment opportunities – all aspects that the Closing the Gap objectives aim to address.

As is customary in Territory elections, these Indigenous communities voted Labor. Only once since self-government in 1978 (in 2012) have they not done so.

However, indigenous issues were hardly discussed by politicians or the media during this election campaign.

Read more: NT election: Indigenous promises crumble under the weight of history

This election was essentially an urban election, largely focused in Darwin-Palmerston and, to some extent, Alice Springs. Indigenous issues were only given some attention as a hidden subtext to wider community fears about crime.

Twice the expected swing

I had predicted that the CLP would have uneven swings, in some cases even greater (such as in suburban constituencies with high rates of property crime, violence and public drunkenness).

Overall, I assumed that the CLP opposition would get a Territory-wide swing of around 4%–6%. I was wrong.

The overall swing to the CLP in Darwin’s suburbs was more than double the estimate, with several ministers, including Lawler, losing their seats.

Lawler conceded defeat at 8.30pm, a full hour before losers in NT elections typically do, indicating the scale of Labor’s loss.

The count will resume today, but based on trends I expect at least four (possibly six) labor ministers to lose their seats.

As I predicted, independents were elected in two seats: Yingiya Mark Guyula in Mulka (in north-east Arnhem Land) and Robyn Lambley in Araluen (in Alice Springs).

Other independents have done well, such as in Johnston, where an independent senator who looked like Teal (she wore purple, by the way) outpolled the incumbent Labor Party (although she still backed the CLP).

Loss of votes for Labour

My interpretation of the collapse in the Labour Party’s mood is that there are two factors at play.

One of these is the switch of weakly oriented voters. These voters usually make the swing in an election.

The other is that a significant proportion of Labor voters switched to the Greens. I have praised Chief Minister Lawler for her hard campaign, but it is possible that some Labor voters were alienated by her rightward shift and decided to vote Green, to remind Labor that it is supposed to be a progressive party.

However you interpret this election, it is an absolute landslide for the CLP. By comparison, it is not as bad for Labor as the landslide against the CLP in 2016. At that time, Finocchiaro was the only CLP member re-elected in the Greater Darwin area.

That 2016 election was a big one. As the only remaining CLP MP in the Greater Darwin area, Finocchiaro eventually became CLP leader. Twists of fate mean she is now Chief Minister.

The most interesting new development of this election was the rise of the Greens. They will feel very buoyed by this election, in which they finally broke the 20% primary vote barrier in some seats to become serious players in Territory politics.

In my pre-election analysis I said it would be a good election to win because the Northern Territory economy will pick up next year.

In addition, Commonwealth spending in the NT will increase dramatically. The billions of dollars of spending as part of remote housing and education deals negotiated with the Commonwealth, plus other large-scale spending programs, will come into play.

The Commonwealth is committed to addressing Indigenous disadvantage in the Territory, as the Northern Territory is the worst performing region against Closing The Gap targets.

This means that there will be money for the NT and that the new CLP government will be re-elected in 2028.