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Football Parlay Fridays: Creating a Round Robin with Five Underdog Picks for Week 1 of College Football
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Football Parlay Fridays: Creating a Round Robin with Five Underdog Picks for Week 1 of College Football

You can’t watch a sports betting ad or log into a sportsbook without seeing some sort of “Same Game Parlay” being offered. They’re insanely popular. If you’re new to the terminology — and have somehow found yourself here — a parlay is essentially a group of bets linked together, and you don’t win unless they all win. The risk is higher, but so are the payouts, should you win.

Read a more detailed explanation here.

I don’t do parlays that much, but I understand that sports betting is entertainment for many people and a big payout is a draw. And while I find parlays similar to slots in some ways, that doesn’t stop consumers from dipping their toes in the parlay pool.

But when it comes to making smart decisions when betting on sports, it’s important to determine which parlays have positive expected value and which don’t.

So, for a fun exercise, I’m going to start Football Parlay Friday where every Friday I share a parlay that I think is valuable and worth betting on. Again, these are bets with a small chance of winning, so risking a lot of money is not optimal. This is mainly for a nice little sweat on the weekend and a little risk is important here.

This week’s parlay — and let’s be honest, most parlays are going to be like this — is a round-robin parlay. If you’re not familiar with round-robin parlays, they’re a way to take a selection of games and parlay them in multiple ways.

The best way to explain this is to give you the actual stakes.

I think all five of these moneylines have value according to my College Football Projection model — you can find my projections here — and I’m going to put them in a round-robin parlay. These all happen to be underdogs.

The bets:

  • Stanford Money Line (+260)
  • Florida Money Line (+120)
  • UNLV Moneyline (+115)
  • Wyoming Money Line (+225)
  • USC money line (+160)

A simple parlay would have all five of these bets together for odds of +14289. That means if you bet $1, you would win $142.91. This will be part of our parlay, but sportsbooks have a feature called round robins that automatically parlays different combinations.

On BetMGM’s interface, scroll down on your bet slip to see that section. I’ll select “Round Robin 2/5.” This selection parlays each bet with another bet, creating ten two-game parlays (eleven if you count the five-game parlay above). I’m going to wager $2 on each bet in this process for a total of $22.

The round-robin parlays:

  • Stanford/Florida/UNLV/Wyoming/USC (+14289) – $2 to win $285.82
  • Stanford/Florida (+714) – $2 to win $14.28
  • Stanford/UNLV (+674) – $2 to win $13.48
  • Stanford/Wyoming (+1102) – $2 to win $22.05
  • Stanford/USC (+862) – $2 to win $17.24
  • Florida/UNLV (+373) – $2 to win $7.46
  • Florida/Wyoming (+615) – $2 to win $12.30
  • Florida/USC (+472) – $2 to win $9.44
  • UNLV/Wyoming (+599) – $2 to win $11.98
  • UNLV/USC (+459) – $2 to win $9.18
  • Wyoming/USC (+745) – $2 to win $14.90

(Photo of Tre Wilson and Chimere Dike: Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)