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Fantasy football predictions, expectations, surprises for 2024
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Fantasy football predictions, expectations, surprises for 2024

In less than a week, we have NFL games that matter and therefore fantasy football results to keep track of. Hope is eternal and everyone has an opinion on which players are going to do this and which teams are going to do that. That’s the fun of being a fan, right?

With that in mind, we asked our ESPN fantasy football analysts to share those thoughts with the world. If any of these come to fruition, don’t act surprised.


Don’t be surprised if…

Adonai Mitchell finishes as a top-35 fantasy WR

The Indianapolis Colts rookie, currently drafted as the WR61, has the size and speed (his 4.34 40-yard dash was third fastest among wide receivers at this year’s combine) to make him a major threat on the offensive line. And with Josh Downs currently sidelined with a high ankle sprain, Mitchell has had a chance to bond with QB Anthony Richardson in camp. Mitchell flew under the radar at Georgia but emerged at Texas to get a glimpse of what he could become — and the Colts liked what they saw, drafting him 52nd overall. If Downs has an extended absence and/or Mitchell makes a strong case for playing time, he could provide a big return on investment for fantasy managers. — Stephania Bell

Travis Etienne Jr. finishes as one of the top five fantasy RBs

Etienne averaged 16.6 points per game and scored 12 touchdowns last season. He’s a volume runner (267 carries) with the dual-threat skills to produce in the passing game, as Etienne has caught 58 of 73 targets in 2023. Even if he does experience a slight dip in total touches this season, his use has resulted in consistent weekly volume as both a runner and receiver while also creating scoring opportunities low in the red zone. There’s real potential here for Etienne in a Jacksonville Jaguars offense that has the pieces — and the scheme under head coach Doug Pederson — to produce explosive numbers in 2024. — Matt Bowen

Kyren Williams finishes as one of the top five fantasy RBs

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1:21

Do Kyren Williams’ Return Points Impact His Fantasy Potential?

Mike Clay’s confidence in Kyren Williams isn’t undermined by rumors that he will bring back points for the Rams.

Williams’ stock is falling following recent “news” that he will be the Los Angeles Rams’ primary punt returner. Note that Williams filled that role during Weeks 1-3 of last season (he accounted for all three of the Rams’ punt returns) and also played 86% of the team’s offensive snaps during that span. Williams actually opened the 2023 season in a timeshare with Cam Akers, but went on to handle 14 of the team’s first 24 RB carries and play 67% of the snaps in a comfortable Week 1 win over Seattle. He found the end zone twice in that game and, prior to Austin Trammell handling punt return duties in Week 4, was ranked fifth among running backs in fantasy points. We were already factoring in a dip in Williams’ usage with rookie Blake Corum in the mix, so double-counting that now that he’ll be returning one or two punts per game feels like a mistake. A year after becoming the only back along with Christian McCaffrey to average more than 18.0 fantasy PPG, the 24-year-old Williams is well-positioned for another solid RB1 campaign. — Mike Clay

Denver Broncos’ passing game produces excellent fantasy numbers

Marvin Mims Jr., in particular, is shaping up to be the star of our game that many expected him to be in 2023. Bo Nix’s crowning as the starting quarterback is a big plus, as he has looked comfortable in the pocket and has been flawless in his two preseason games. The release of Tim Patrick streamlines the receiving pecking order, making the targets for Courtland Sutton and Mims safer than they were even a few weeks ago. Sutton, who averages as the No. 42 wide receiver, and Mims, who averages outside the top 75 at the position, both have ceilings that extend into the top 20 at the position. Meanwhile, Nix should have some compelling matchups with a chance to be the surprise of his position — a top 12 quarterback. — Tristan H. Cockcroft

Kyle Pitts is TE1 this season

The first three seasons of Pitts’ career have been frustrating for fantasy managers. Even Pitts’ rookie season, in which he became only the second tight end in league history to debut with 1,000 yards receiving, was a bit of a disappointment as he only scored one touchdown. Injuries, quarterback play and scheme design have been the conspirators of the last two years. This is the season that it’s finally coming together. Pitts will be playing in an Atlanta Falcons offense that is showcasing its extraordinary talents and is led by a competent QB in Kirk Cousins. By this time next year, we’ll be looking at Pitts as a Round 2-3 fantasy pick. — Tyler Fulghum

Derrick Henry rushes for 20 touchdowns

Maybe that’s not bold enough. Twenty-five scores? Henry has had double-digit rushing touchdowns in six straight seasons, but even in his 2,000-yard season, he had “only” 17. That was in a 16-game season. Now he gets 17 games, and the Baltimore Ravens offense provides a perfect lineup, with a beefed-up offensive line, an elusive quarterback with elite skills, and creative play-calling. If Gus Edwards can score 13 touchdowns, what can Henry do? Yes, he’s 30, but he’s still destroying defenders and piling up yards after contact. There are also more touchdowns than receptions in the game. — Eric Karabell

Rome Odunze passes Keenan Allen as Caleb Williams’ second target

It’s a matter of when, not if. Odunze will be Williams’ second-favorite target behind DJ Moore before the season is over. Odunze exuded Alpha energy during his college career (10 games of 100+ receiving yards in 2023 and a Biletnikoff Award finalist) and from the start since being drafted ninth overall by the Chicago Bears. He and Williams have flashed good chemistry right away, with the two notably matching up on an out-of-structure play that resulted in a beautiful 45-yard connection during the team’s third preseason outing against Cincinnati. A player with Odunze’s frame, route-savvy and catch radius can’t be relegated to No. 3 WR duties for long. His stat lines may be a bit boom-or-bust to start, but he’s a solid upside pick in the 10th round (an astonishing three rounds after Allen was selected). — Liz Loza

Travis Kelce finishes outside of top five TEs

Kelce is still one of the best (if not the best) tight ends in the game, but the gap between him and the rest of the field has narrowed considerably. Since 2016, Kelce has finished as the top tight end six times and has never been lower than TE3 in that span. His dominant run has been impressive, but Kelce now has competition, not just in his own offense, but from a slew of other exciting fantasy-relevant tight ends. Think Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, Evan Engram, David Njoku and (now that he has a real QB) Kyle Pitts, to name a few. Kelce turns 35 this year and must also deal with Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown stealing targets in the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense. Kelce had the second-lowest target share of his career last season, and that was before the Chiefs added more weapons to the offense. Nothing that is golden lasts forever, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a changing of the guard at the top of the tight end position this season. — Daniel Dopp

Caleb Williams throws for over 4,000 yards and is a top 10 fantasy QB

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1:20

Why Field Yates is ‘all in’ on Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams in fantasy

Field Yates explains why he’s looking forward to the rookie QB class excelling in fantasy football.

The Bears are the only team to never have a quarterback pass for 4,000 yards in a season. Surrounded by an impressive supporting cast, Williams is well-positioned to end that drought. The No. 1 pick will be the first rookie quarterback selected in the top five to throw to multiple players who had at least 1,200 receiving yards the previous season (Moore, Allen). He’ll also have an extra target in fellow first-round rookie Odunze, who led the FBS with 1,640 receiving yards in his final college season at Washington. Williams’ rushing potential gives him a high fantasy ceiling. — Eric Moody

Jayden Daniels finishes as one of the top seven fantasy QBs as a rookie

Daniels is QB12 in my preseason rankings, one spot above Caleb Williams among all rookie signal-callers. Daniels has a lot of ingredients working in his favor to have a great season, as he has elite mobility for the position (he led all FBS players in yards per rush attempt last season, with at least 100 rushes), is a gifted thrower, and will fuel a fast-paced offense that will often play from behind this season. While we often harp on the importance of rushing for quarterbacks when it comes to creating a high floor, Daniels also possesses a big upside. — Field Yates