If I’ve learned anything betting in the NFL over the years, it is to never get too high on one team or too low on another because, in reality, most teams usually wind up somewhere in the middle. So keep that guiding principle in mind if you’re foolish enough (like I am) to wager real dollars on a sport often decided by a bounce of an oblong ball—and that now includes some unpredictable kickoff rules.

As NFL fans, we’re biased by what we watched late last season and into the playoffs. If you’re consuming a lot of preseason NFL content (like I am), you’ve probably heard a lot of buzz about the teams that are expected to challenge Kansas City and San Francisco at the top of their respective conferences. You won’t find that here. Spoiler: I’m not picking Houston or Detroit to repeat as division champions.

Why not? Think about some of the collective assumptions many people made about the league a year ago: The Eagles and Bengals were primed to make runs back to the Final Four and maybe go even further to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. (The Eagles collapsed and lost to Tampa Bay 32-9 in the first round of the playoffs; the Bengals finished last in the AFC North.) Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa were the two poster quarterbacks who couldn’t be trusted to stay healthy—each played every meaningful game while half the league had to turn to backups. Only four of the eight preseason favorites, according to betting odds, won their respective divisions in 2023, and Buffalo did so only after a furious late-season charge to overtake Miami.

The best way to approach NFL futures bets is to think as a contrarian and not get too stuck on your priors with particular teams or players. Things can—and will—change remarkably quickly in this league.

These are my favorite division winner, win total, and individual award bets ahead of Week 1. All lines are from FanDuel as of Sunday night unless otherwise noted.

Surprise Division Winners

Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC North (+165)

There has been at least one team to go from worst to first in 19 of the 21 seasons since the NFL moved to the current divisional structure. This year, the Bengals are my favorite to do it out of 2023’s eight last-place teams. They’re not the only bottom-placed team I’m picking to win their division (more on that later), but Cincinnati is well-positioned to reclaim the AFC North crown after a down season in 2023, when Joe Burrow missed the last seven games with a serious wrist injury. Now Burrow is back and starting the season healthy with a full, normal training camp under his belt for the first time. The schedule makers did Cincinnati a favor by giving it a very friendly schedule, with just one 2023 playoff team in the first four weeks. A fast start after that stretch of games against the Patriots, Chiefs, Commanders, and Panthers would be huge for Cincinnati’s division chances, as it has been a sub-.500 team (7-8-1) during the first four weeks of the season since Burrow’s debut in 2020; it has won 61 percent of his other regular-season starts.

It’s true that the Ravens have a remarkable 58-19 record with Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback—a large reason why he’s already won two MVP awards. But I expect Baltimore’s defense to take a real step back in 2024. It was one of the eight best defenses of the century last year, according to the FTN Football Almanac. The loss of defensive architect Mike Macdonald, whose simulated pressures stifled even the best NFL offenses, will likely lead to some regression for that unit and open the door for Cincinnati to pounce on its fourth-placed schedule and steal the AFC North.

Green Bay Packers to win the NFC North (+210)

The Packers are certainly a popular sleeper pick this season, but I’d argue they’re not getting as much love as the Lions, the team widely projected to win the NFC North. Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love was third in the expected points added and completion percentage over expected composite metric after Week 8 last year, as a young Packers offense jelled and produced at an elite level in the second half of the regular season and into the playoffs. Add in Green Bay’s depth of receiving options, with four receivers and two tight ends age 25 or younger at the top of the depth chart, and you could make a case that the Packers have a higher ceiling than Detroit.

The other case for Green Bay as a value play is that Matt LaFleur finally moved on from defensive coordinator Joe Barry after Barry’s defenses finished 25th in DVOA in 2022 and 27th in 2023. The switch to the more aggressive Jeff Hafley creates potential upside when facing better quarterbacks.

After the Packers beat the Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving, these two teams were basically equals for the remainder of the season. By EPA, the Packers were second offensively and 26th defensively after Week 12. Detroit was fifth offensively and 20th defensively. Green Bay and Detroit should be cofavorites for the NFC North, and the Packers have a marginally easier schedule.

Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South (+290)

Flash back to this time last year, when the Jaguars were a popular dark-horse team. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence was even getting MVP buzz! They were coming off of a season in which they had gone from worst to first (winning the AFC South in Week 18) and staged a historic comeback in the playoffs to beat the Chargers before losing to the Chiefs in the divisional round. They even started last season 8-3 before a medley of injuries, many of them to Lawrence, and close losses doomed their playoff hopes.

Now, everyone seems to have forgotten about Jacksonville, as Houston has replaced it as the trendy pick to challenge Kansas City at the top of the AFC.

I’m not saying the Jaguars are better than the Texans, but they are considerably closer to one another than the betting market suggests with this +290 price on Jacksonville to win the division. For all of the hype surrounding Houston, it’s important to remember that quarterback C.J. Stroud finished 12th overall in the EPA and CPOE composite metric and 16th out of 33 quarterbacks with at least 150 plays in the second half of the regular season by the same standard. His second-half numbers were slightly below Lawrence’s. In my view, the Texans aren’t as elite offensively as the market currently has them priced.

Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South (+1100)

I know you’re probably reading this and calling me a heretic. Contrarian for the sake of contrarian. No way a team could go from worst in the NFL to division champions the next year with a quarterback who struggled as a rookie.

Atlanta is the favorite to win the NFC South, and rightfully so. But with Kirk Cousins coming off an Achilles injury (and the Falcons spending their first-round pick on his backup), if you’re being honest with yourself, deep down, you probably don’t trust Atlanta to win this division either.

To be willing to put money on the Panthers to win the division, you have to have faith in Bryce Young—and I’m higher on his potential for a rebound season than most. It feels foolish to write him off completely, especially after Carolina beefed up the wide receiver room with the trade for former Steeler Diontae Johnson and the selection of Xavier Legette in the draft. Carolina also invested money to improve the offensive line, especially the interior. It might not work. Odds are Carolina will still be below .500, but if Dave Canales can revitalize Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield as a quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator, I think there’s upside for the Carolina offense in a weak division.

Take the Under

Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 7.5 wins (+104)

The Action Network’s Luck Rankings had Tampa Bay as the third-most fortunate team in the NFL in 2023, behind only Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. There’s a lot of variance in a single game that can be compounded over a 17-game regular season. The Buccaneers defense had the third-lowest red zone touchdown percentage allowed last season, and it forced the most fumbles in the NFL. These are the kind of extremely high-leverage regression indicators that can dramatically alter the perception of how good a team really is.

The Buccaneers offense got a career year out of Mayfield, and despite that, it was bottom eight in EPA on early downs and bottom five in early down success rate. Tampa Bay has a new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, replacing Canales, and I think the Buccaneers will take a step back in the win-loss column.

Tennessee Titans under 6.5 wins (-128)

Tennessee spent a ton of money on free agent additions, but your opinion of the Titans largely comes down to your evaluation of Will Levis. There were 49 quarterbacks who played at least 100 snaps last year, and Levis ranked 37th in success rate (42.5 percent). That’s worse than Kenny Pickett and Sam Howell, both of whom are backups in 2024.

In order to believe Levis will be better, you have to believe the offensive line will be better, and I’m worried that’s not the case. Pro Football Focus ranked the Titans’ offensive line 30th in its preseason rankings, and that’s after Tennessee tackle JC Latham made the top 10 and esteemed offensive line coach Bill Callahan came aboard. Latham is playing left tackle, something he never did in college, and it seems like new head coach Brian Callahan will ask Levis to try to throw more, but Levis has a propensity to take a lot of sacks—his sack rate was the sixth highest among starters last season—and his love of throwing the ball vertically is very boom or bust.

Cleveland Browns under 8.5 wins (+112)

Two things can be true: The Browns will probably still be a top-five defense, and the Browns defense will likely take a step back in 2024. Cleveland finished in the top eight in percentage of snaps played against backup or non-primary quarterbacks last year, and that must be considered as a factor for why the defense was so dominant.

Cleveland finished 6-2 in one-score games, and the offensive numbers don’t seem sustainable, especially if you remove the absurd run that Joe Flacco had in the second half of the season. The Browns spent half of the preseason and training camp shuffling through their few healthy offensive linemen.

Even if you include the Flacco data, Cleveland’s offense was 28th in success rate, and Deshaun Watson was 40th out of 49 quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 plays in success rate. Can the Browns play extremely elite defense again and grind out close wins to go over this number? Yes. But I think it’ll more likely be a losing season in northeast Ohio.

The First-Year Favorite

Seattle Seahawks to make the playoffs (+168) and Mike Macdonald to win Coach of the Year (+1000, DraftKings)

If you line up every team by over/under win total, the Seahawks enter the season at 23rd. That’s probably because Pete Carroll’s defense completely bottomed out toward the end of the 2023 season and finished 28th in defensive DVOA. Enter new head coach Mike Macdonald, who just elevated the Ravens into one of the best defenses of the century last year. It’s not just that the Seahawks have a new coach who will bring a new defensive scheme; they’ve quietly beefed up the talent, too. First-round pick Byron Murphy II adds some important defensive line quality, and free agent Johnathan Hankins should pair with midseason trade acquisition Leonard Williams to improve a run defense that was 31st against the run by EPA last year. Seattle simply could not get off the field last season, finishing dead last in EPA per play allowed on third downs.

Macdonald has successfully slowed down the Shanahan-based offensive systems, while the Seahawks have struggled to slow down the 49ers for multiple seasons. Seattle doesn’t have nearly as much talent as Baltimore, but it would be a huge step forward for the defense to be just average.

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks’ success in 2024 will come down to how well an offensive line that graded poorly last season (31st by PFF) holds up and whether it can improve on late downs under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who is calling plays in the NFL for the first time after a long career as a college assistant coach.

All the building blocks are there for the Seahawks to have a top-10 offense and a league-average defense, which could make them playoff contenders who outperform these modest market expectations for their postseason chances. If the Seahawks make the playoffs, Macdonald would immediately be a front-runner for Coach of the Year, as he would check every box for that award: a first-year coach who replaces a legend and orchestrates a turnaround.

Awards Analysis

Josh Allen to win MVP (+800)

There are a handful of factors to consider when handicapping the MVP market, but none are more important than team success and narrative.

Of the last 17 MVPs, 15 came from a team that earned the first or second seed in their conference. It’s also a recency bias award, heavily skewed toward performances in the last few games of the season—many of which often end up in prime time. This became especially clear last season, when Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy each had leads in the MVP betting odds that fell off after poor performances on national television against the Bills and Ravens, respectively. Lamar Jackson swooped in and won the MVP award despite worse season-long stats, partly because of his dominance of San Francisco on Christmas and Miami in Week 17, performances that helped the Ravens earn the no. 1 seed.

If you think the Bills will win the gauntlet of the AFC East over the Jets and Dolphins, then instead of betting Buffalo at +195, you’re probably better off taking Allen to win the MVP at +800.

Allen has never won the award before, a narrative that will work in his favor in a field that could include prior winners such as Patrick Mahomes and Jackson, and his willingness to use his legs more in November and December makes him extremely efficient. Buffalo leaned on the running game once Joe Brady became offensive coordinator in the middle of last season, and that did help protect Allen from throwing 40 times a game and subjecting himself to the high-profile mistakes that still plague him from time to time.

The Bills lost their star wide receiver in Stefon Diggs, but Allen was playing at an MVP level in the second half of the season, and Diggs was barely producing. The narrative will be that Allen has little help in Buffalo, which will propel him to the award if Buffalo is a top-two or top-three team in the conference. He’s my pick for MVP.

Caleb Williams is the clear favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but there’s no value in betting him

There are way more scenarios where Williams is just average as a rookie and doesn’t win this award than ones where he does win. The preseason expectations and market sentiment surrounding Williams are extremely positive, to the point that it becomes harder for him to surpass those expectations and win the award. If Williams has a solid but unspectacular rookie year, how will voters look at him in January?

Jayden Daniels is next on the odds board, and it’s easy to see how Daniels can put up the counting stats and make enough highlight plays to win this award, even if the Commanders aren’t good. Still, I’m personally concerned enough about Daniels’s time to throw and high sack rates in college to think that he could also take a lot of sacks behind a bad Commanders offensive line.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is being drafted in the top 15 on average in fantasy football drafts. The team context is awesome for Harrison as he walks in as the best wide receiver on a team with a solid quarterback and a bad defense. Harrison is likely to rack up counting stats in negative game states all season long, and he’s the only player I’d even consider betting at the current +650 price. I believe far more in his rookie ceiling as an NFL talent than I do in Daniels’s. Even so, I’ll be waiting until the season has started to bet into this market.

Defensive Rookie of the Year is almost always a first-round pick, so bet accordingly

There are essentially two cofavorites in this market, and both step into positive environments. Colts edge Laiatu Latu and Vikings edge Dallas Turner have the chance to help replace missing production. The Colts lost Samson Ebukam to an injury, and longtime Vikings pass rusher Danielle Hunter is now a Texan.

In Miami, I’m intrigued by the potential for Chop Robinson to replace Bradley Chubb, who will start the season on the PUP list. Jaelan Phillips’s recovery from a major injury also opens the door for Robinson to make an immediate impact. Robinson at +1400 is more interesting to me in this market than Latu or Turner at +400 or +440, respectively.

Even though Sauce Gardner won the award in 2022-23, it remains a pass rusher’s award for the most part.