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Tigers vs Trojans Prediction and Picks for September 1, 2024

Vaseline September 2, 2024

It’s an important, standalone game on the college field with two ranked teams starting the season when the Big Ten intertwines with the SEC in the city that never sleeps. The #23 USC Trojans are the ‘away’ team when they take on the #13 LSU Tigers in the Vegas Kickoff Classic on Sunday night. USC finished its last season in the Pac-12 with an 8-5 record (5-4 in conference play) and won the Holiday Bowl, 42-28, over Louisville to close out its slate. LSU went 10-3 last season and 6-2 in the SEC, ending its season with a 35-31 victory over Louisville in the ReliaQuest Bowl. These teams have met twice before, with each team winning away. LSU recorded a 23-3 away victory in the most recent meeting on September 29, 1984.

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USC starts new chapter

USC finished 8-5 overall last season and 5-4 in the Pac-12 on the season, a three-win loss from the season before, in their final year in the Pac-12. The Trojans now begin a new chapter as they make the jump from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten in 2024. Southern Cal will need to refocus under coach Lincoln Riley, as former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams was drafted #1 overall by the Bears. That’s just one position the Trojans will need to reload at this season. The Trojans have just five starters on the offensive side of the ball, though three of those are on the offensive line and four on defense. This could be a challenging year for the Trojans as they adjust to new conference rivals.

The Trojans were 5^and in the nation in passing offense with 333 yards per game, while ranking 91st^st in rushing by averaging 133.9 yards per game last season. USC was 3^rd in the FBS in scoring offense with 41.8 points per game while ranking 118th^and among the 133 FBS teams in scoring defense by giving up 34.4 points per game.

Miller Moss completed 46 of 65 passes for 681 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception, along with 32 rushing yards plus two scores on the ground last season. Moss stepped in for Williams in the Holiday Bowl against Louisville, throwing for 372 yards with six TDs and an interception in a 42-28 win. He won the starting QB job, holding off UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava for the spot. Woody Marks (121 carries, 573 yards, four TDs, 23 catches, 167 yards, two TDs at Mississippi State) takes over the starting running back role. Quinten Joyner (18 carries, 125 yards, TD) and A’Marion Peterson (two carries, 14 yards) are next in line. In the passing game, Zachariah Branch (31 receptions, 320 yards, two TDs), tight end Lake McRee (26 catches, 262 yards, TD). Kyron Hudson (17 grabs, 189 yards, two TDs), Ja’Kobi Lane (seven receptions, 93 yards, two TDs) and Duce Robinson (16 catches, 351 yards, two TDs) are all back to make plays. Denis Lynch (65-of-66 extra point attempts, 10-of-14 field goals with a long of 53) is back to handle the kicking duties.

If anyone can get this offense up to par and replace a great quarterback like Caleb Williams, it’s Riley.

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Tigers hope to start post-Daniels era with a win

LSU pulled off its second straight double-digit win under coach Brian Kelly thanks to their victory in the ReliaQuest Bowl. The Tigers went 10-3 on the season and 6-2 in the SEC, though they will need to replace some pieces. Jayden Daniels, who won the Heisman Trophy last season, moved on to the NFL, selected #2 overall by Washington, just behind Williams. The Tigers also saw their top two receiving threats from a year ago, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers, also selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. LSU will need to get some guys to step up at the skill positions, though they do return four starters on an experienced offensive line that should help things move along.

Last year the Tigers were 3^rd in the nation in passing offense averaging 338.9 yards per game through the air while ranking 10^and in rushing offense with 204.5 yards per game. LSU was 1^st in the FBS in scoring offense averaging 45.5 points per game last season, while the Tigers were tied with 78^and in the country in scoring defense by allowing 28 points per game.

Garrett Nussmeier, who completed 48 of 78 passes for 591 yards with four touchdowns against one interception while adding one yard plus a score on the ground last season, takes over the starting QB role. He flashed potential in the Reliaquest Bowl against Wisconsin on New Year’s Day, throwing for 395 yards with three TDs and one interception after Daniels opted to declare for the draft.

Rickie Collins (2 of 3, 2 yards) is the backup. Josh Williams (55 carries, 284 yards, 5 TDs) is the team’s leading returning rusher. He’ll be in the mix along with Kaleb Jackson (31 carries, 165 yards, 4 TDs) and John Emery Jr. (23 carries, 121 yards, TD) on the ground. Tight end Mason Taylor (36 receptions, 348 yards, TD) is the team’s leading returning pass catcher. Kyren Lacy (30 catches, 558 yards, 7 TDs) is back as the starting receiver, while C.J. Daniels (55 grabs, 1,067 yards, 10 TDs at Liberty) and Chris Hilton Jr. (13 catches, 225 yards, 2 TDs) are expected to fill the other starting spots. Damian Ramos made all 77 extra point attempts and 12 of 15 field goal attempts with a long of 48 last season. He’s back this year to handle the kicking duties.

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Best Bets for LSU vs. Southern California (USC)

Full game side bet

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Judgement:

It’s a new chapter for both teams, as the last two Heisman Trophy winners left those programs in the offseason after going 1-2 in the NFL Draft. Both teams have quarterbacks who took a step forward a season ago and have bowl game wins. LSU has an experienced offensive line that should be able to hold Nussmeier up while opening holes in the ground game. We saw how USC struggled on defense last season, as the Trojans ranked 101st against the pass (246.4 yards per game), 116th against the run (186.5 yards per game) and 116th in total defense (432.8 yards per game) in addition to ranking 118th in scoring defense. LSU should be able to move the ball against the Trojans, and their defense, led by Harold Perkins, should do enough against the Trojans to pull out a win here.

Prediction: LSU Tigers -4

Full game total choice

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Judgement:

USC saw the over go 10-3 in their 2023 campaign. The Trojans did not have a game with fewer than 58 combined points. Their lone neutral site game came in the bowl game against Louisville, where they combined for 70 points compared to a 58-point average. LSU finished the 2023 season with an over, a massive 12-1 mark on the year. Their lone under of the season came against Georgia State in a game where the teams still combined for 70 points to fall short of the 74.5-point total. The Tigers went over the total in both neutral site games that wrapped up their season last season, a loss to Florida State in the opener and a win over Wisconsin in the ReliaQuest Bowl. While the quarterbacks are different from last season, both offenses scored points to push this game over the total.

Prediction: older than 64

Author Profile

Chris Koning, “Chris Koning”

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for over three decades. Whether it’s playing pick-up games or participating in organized sports or being a fan, he’s checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops and even the MLB to the KBO. If it’s out there, he’s covered it and bet on it too, as Chris has spent his career as an expert in betting. Before joining Winners and Whiners in 2015, his work appeared online and in print. He has written books for Ruckus Books on college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf and the World Cup. If you’re looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.

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