The Cash Register Stage

Top 3 Films at Domestic Box Office Prediction | September 6 – 8, 2024

Week 36 | September 6 – 8, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Reach | Weekend 36, 2024: $145M — $185M

1. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Warner Bros. | NEW
Weekend range: $115M – $145M
Showtime Market Share: 36%

Advantages

• For three weekends the firewall was Death Pole/Stranger/It ends with us has continued unbroken (although Monday’s actual numbers ultimately It ends with us (to #5 this week). Apparently all we had to do was say “Beetlejuice” twice to break that streak, as Warner Bros. gears up for the smashing debut of Beetlejuice BeetlejuiceDirector Tim Burton’s long-awaited sequel to his 1988 ghost comedy hit. The film has so far received solid reviews with an 81% on Rotten Tomatoes after a successful early debut at the Venice Film Festival and even an early press conference (a sign of confidence from the studio). While more reviews are rolling in from Tuesday’s all-media screenings, the positive buzz has been enough to raise expectations for an opening weekend of over $100 million.

• Another holistic benefit of the second Beetle juice Earning $100M+ this coming weekend will single-handedly push the overall box office back into nine figures after two slow weekends buoyed by returning titles that hovered around the $80M mark. With the exception of Geena Davis and Alec Baldwin (whose deceased characters are described in a single sentence in the film), most of the key nostalgia players from the first film are back, including Michael Keaton as the iconic title Bio-Exorcist, Winona Ryder as Lydia, and Catherine O’Hara as Delia. Promising newcomer Jenna Ortega from the Scream franchise and Burton’s hit Wednesday series is here to bring in the Gen Alphas, with a reliable group of character actors (Justin Theroux, Monica Bellucci, Willem Dafoe, Danny DeVito) rounding out the ensemble. This excellent mix of familiar faces, returning characters, and Burton’s trademark macabre humor/cartoonish visuals should hopefully keep this film performing steadily until Halloween (when the story takes place). Well-placed marketing tie-ins with Fanta and Keebler, and riding the signature popcorn bucket wave at Regal, AMC, and Cinemark can only help boost ticket sales further.

Disadvantages

• 36 years after the original, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice stands as one of the longest-running direct sequels ever alongside Top Gun: Maverick (36 years), Blade Runner 2049 (33 years), Coming soon to America (33 years), The Odd Couple II (30 years), and (if you count it) Mary Poppins returns (54 years). With the exception of Nonconformistthose films weren’t necessarily well received, and the fact that they got old/actors got older during their long march to the screen plays a role in this. A Beetle juice A sequel has been in the works since shortly after the first film became a sleeper hit in March 1988, but Burton became increasingly involved with the Batman franchise and had scripts like Beetlejuice Goes Hawaiian gathering dust. After two Batman films, Burton and Keaton finally teamed up again for the Disney failure Dumboan experience so sour that Burton nearly gave up making films. Keaton didn’t enjoy the experience either. As a result, the Burton-Keaton pairing is not as established or productive as the director’s eight-film collaboration with Johnny Depp.

Since Burton made over a billion dollars for Disney with the 2010 live-action film Alice in Wonderland (a career best), his track record at the box office has declined, especially domestically. Here’s a look…

• Dumbo (2019) – $114.7 million domestic/$353.1 million WW
• Miss Peregrine’s Home for Special Children (2016) – $87.2 million domestic/$295.9 million WW
• Dark shadows (2012) – $79.7 million domestic/$245.5 million WW
• Frankenweed (2012) – $35.2 million domestic/$81.1 million WW
• Big eyes (2014) – $14.4 million domestic/$27.3 million WW

Big eyes failed to be Ed Hout biopic energy, while remaking a Disney classic (Dumbo), a cult TV show (Dark shadows), and even his own 1984 short film (Frankenweed) lacked his typical flair for recycling pop culture artifacts. This list excludes Burton-produced bombs, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter And Alice through the looking glass. The name “Tim Burton” alone used to be a selling point a la Steven Spielberg or Christopher Nolan, but that’s not the case anymore. It’s quite possible that Burton’s brand of gothic whimsy has had its day, though it returns to familiar territory with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will hopefully revive the world’s love for the dark author.

2. Deadpool and Wolverine
Marvel Studios | Week 7
Weekend gross: $7 million – $10 million
Showtime Market Share: 8%

Advantages

With domestic sales of $603.9 million, Deadpool and Wolverine is finally planning to catch up on 2012 The Avengers ($623.3 million) as the 5th highest-grossing MCU title in the United States, which it will likely achieve around or just after this upcoming frame. After bringing in $15.4 million last week, we’re looking at a drop of up to 50% or less, which is still great for this title. Disney has kept the title exclusive to theaters for 40 days after its release, which has helped boost box office sales in the later frames. Releasing blockbusters on home video, even if they’re high on the theatrical charts, has become a trend this year, as seen when Warner Bros. Dune: Part Two released only a month and a half after its release on Digital… while the film was still in the Top 5 at the box office.

Disadvantages

Beetlejuice is sucking the oxygen out of the house this weekend in terms of box office, meaning the Merc With a Mouth will end his reign at the top after winning five of the last six weekends. Even though Deadpool and WolverineThe percentage declines have been lower each consecutive weekend, which will change this frame after a personal best of -16% was set over Labor Day weekend.

THROW:

3. It ends with us
Sony Photos | Week 5
Weekend Reach: $4M – $6M
Showtime Market Share: 6%

3.The front room
A24 | NEW
Weekend Reach: $4M – $6M
Showtime Market Share: 6%

Advantages

Like Deadpool and Wolverinethe romantic drama hit It ends with us has posted lower drops in consecutive weekends. We’re looking at possibly the lowest drop yet for the Blake Lively-starrer, even as A24 mounts a counteroffensive to the female demo with its new horror programmer, The Front Room. Written and directed by Max and Sam Eggers, brothers of The Witch Directed by Robert Eggers, the film stars famed singer/actress Brandy Norwood (aka Brandy) as a pregnant woman who takes in her husband’s demented/estranged stepmother. Microaggressions quickly turn into macroaggressions. The story is based on a story by British author Susan Hill, whose The woman in black has been successfully filmed several times and recently spawned a franchise.

Disadvantages

Monday actual numbers were correct It ends with us from its original predicted #3 position over Labor Day to #5 under Reagan And Whirlwinds. It could recover, except for A24’s R-rated Beetlejuice counterprogramming with The Front Roomwho can snatch the #3 throne. We have both titles neck and neck, although The Front Room could level off in the same way scared did this past weekend. Much of the marketing is anchored by Brandy, who hasn’t had a theatrical film since Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Therapist in 2013. The star has been relegated to streaming services such as The best. Christmas. Ever!although an arty A24 horror flick might be just the ticket to revive her film career. The reviews aren’t out yet, which is never a positive sign.