EUGENE – The #3 ranked Oregon Ducks squeaked out the Idaho Vandals with a 24-14 victory. It’s safe to say that this wasn’t the Oregon Football debut that Duck fans were expecting. Oregon’s interior offensive line crumbled under pressure, the Ducks couldn’t get their run game up to par, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel was stuck on short passes with very few runs of his own. Overall, this was a much closer game than many expected. Even with the Ducks squeaking out the win, many fans and pundits were left scratching their heads.

On paper, Oregon’s game against Idaho has a few highlights. The Ducks have more than double the passing yards and 21 more first downs than the Vandals. Oregon even dominated possession time, with about 39 minutes compared to Idaho’s roughly 20 minutes. And that’s without even mentioning quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who surpassed 1,500 career passing yards, having thrown for 380 yards, two touchdowns and 41-for-49 passing attempts in this game alone.

This game was sloppy though, and you can easily see that in the eight penalties Oregon took that cost them 60 yards. They went one and three for fourth downs, with a couple of risky conversions in Oregon territory. Again hitting the offensive line, the trenches allowed Oregon 4 sacks. Compare that to last year, when the offensive line allowed just five sacks all season, and you can see why this game felt more like a warning shot than a victory.

Those stats match what former Alabama coach Nick Saban said about Oregon during the first episode of College Gameday before kickoff.

“Is (Dillon Gabriel) going to lead the way? He certainly has the talent,” Saban said. “But the big question for Oregon is going to be, not their skill, because they have great skill players, how they stack up in the Big Ten — their offensive linemen, their defensive linemen and that’s going to be the telltale sign of whether they can have consistent success or not.”

So now Oregon is at the mercy of the AP Poll, which will be released on Tuesday. Many expect the Ducks to fall because of their performance, but how far will their ranking drop from their current No. 3 position?

First, for those who may be new, the AP Poll is determined by a team of 62 sportswriters from across the country representing a variety of different programs. These 62 voters select their top 25 teams in the country for that week. After all of the ballots are received, each ranked team is given a certain number of points based on where these journalists place them in the lineup (an initial selection gets 25 points, and the points go down from there). The final results reflect the teams with the most points at the top and then down. Typically, the final results are released on Sunday, but are held back until the week due to games taking place over Labor Day weekend.

Oregon’s ranking in the poll is influenced by the performance of all the other teams listed. That’s not great to look at, as No. 1 Georgia dominated Clemson in Atlanta, 34-3, No. 2 Ohio State won against unranked Akron, 52-6, and No. 4 Texas defeated Colorado State, 52-0. If you’re a sportswriter comparing those three aforementioned games to Oregon’s nail-biter against an unranked FCS team, it’s not looking good for the Ducks.

There are also lower-seeded teams that made statements in their opening games that deserve a higher ranking. No. 19 Miami defeated the Florida Gators in The Swamp 41-17, No. 8 Penn State secured a win against West Virginia after a lengthy lightning delay, 34-12, and No. 7 Notre Dame won a heated battle against No. 20 Texas A&M in College Station by a score of 23-13.

And that’s without even mentioning Sunday’s game between LSU and the USC Trojans or the Labor Day game where Florida State will attempt a comeback by playing at home against Boston College.

While the game wasn’t pretty, Oregon’s stats here could help them slide further in the AP Poll. Oregon’s defense, particularly their secondary, looked solid last night with Matayo Uiagaleilei notably recording two sacks. Tez Johnson, Terrance Ferguson, Jordan James and Gabriel provide some real glimmers of hope in an otherwise disjointed offense. This is also the first game and pundits may not be sure if Gabriel is simply playing with a finger injury, as it is currently rumored that he did so during the game against Idaho.

It was an ugly win, but a win is still a win. The stats are there to ensure that Florida State doesn’t experience a free fall like it did when it went from No. 10 to No. 16 after its loss in Ireland to Georgia Tech. Oregon still has a lot to learn before it plays Mountain West Conference Championship favorite Boise State at home this year, but this win won’t end the season like many on social media are assuming. It’s a wake-up call for the team, no doubt, but not an obituary.

We predict the Ducks won’t fall outside the top ten of the AP Poll, but will likely finish somewhere between fifth and eighth (probably even sixth).

Hopefully the Ducks can fix their interior offensive line issues, Gabriel can get more comfortable with long passes, and a real cohesive groove can emerge with inspired offensive play calling to return the Ducks to a force to be reckoned with. At this point, Duck fans can be thankful that a 12-team College Football Playoff doesn’t immediately negate a poor performance here and there.