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    • Will Francine strengthen soon? A Category 2 hurricane is predicted.
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    Will Francine strengthen soon? A Category 2 hurricane is predicted.

    Vaseline Posted on

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    Tropical Storm Francine — soon to be Hurricane Francine — has been slowly strengthening since it formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, with winds now estimated at 65 mph on Tuesday morning. One question is: How strong will Francine become before it hits land?

    “Significant strengthening” was forecast before Francine made landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said, with sustained winds of 100 mph possible near the storm’s center. That would make it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.

    Thanks in part to the unusually warm seawater in the Gulf of Mexico, Francine could even experience what meteorologists call “rapid intensification,” a condition that occurs when a storm’s wind speed increases by at least 35 mph (56 km/h) in a 24-hour period.

    Warm water versus wind shear

    Although there is enough warm water for intensification, strong winds at high altitudes can prevent strengthening:

    “The tropical cyclone should move over very warm waters before making landfall, although west-southwest vertical wind shear across the system is likely to increase,” the hurricane center said in an online forecast released Tuesday morning. “The latter environmental influence is likely to limit Francine’s strengthening.”

    Wind shear causes tropical cyclones to break up, preventing them from forming and strengthening.

    When and where will the wind be strongest near Francine?

    “Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected Wednesday across parts of southern Louisiana, with a hurricane warning in effect,” the hurricane center said.

    Preparations to protect lives and property should be completed tonight as tropical storms are expected in the area early Wednesday morning, the center said.

    What happens when a Category 2 hurricane makes landfall?

    According to the National Hurricane Center, extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage. This includes:

    ∎ Well-built frame homes may sustain extensive roof and siding damage. ∎ Many shallow-rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking many roads. ∎ Near-total power outages are expected, with power outages lasting several days to weeks.

    Tracker for Tropical Storm Francine

    Francine spaghetti models

    Spaghetti model illustrations include a variety of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best performing models to create its forecasts.

    Vaseline
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