A cone on a map of the Gulf of Mexico shows the expected path of Hurricane Francis as it heads toward the Louisiana coast. The storm is expected to make landfall Wednesday and then weaken as it approaches Mississippi on Thursday.

National Weather Service

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National Weather Service

According to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Francine is moving over warm waters in the western Gulf of Mexico and has the Louisiana coast and the New Orleans area in its sights.

The storm strengthened to a hurricane Tuesday evening; maximum sustained winds are now over 90 mph. At 10 a.m. CT, Francine was located about 150 miles southwest of Morgan City, La., and moving northeast at 13 mph.

“Francine is expected to make landfall in Louisiana late this afternoon or evening,” the hurricane center said Wednesday.

If the storm surge coincides with high tide, water could reach 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3 meters) above ground in areas from Intracoastal City in Louisiana and Vermilion Bay to Port Fourchon.

The hurricane’s outer rain bands began to impact Lafayette, Baton Rouge and other areas of southern Louisiana Wednesday morning. In the Gulf, an oil rig north of the center recently reported a peak wind gust of 105 mph, the NHC said.

Evacuations and New Orleans under hurricane warning

The center of Hurricane Francis is expected to make landfall near Morgan City, La., west of New Orleans, as shown on this map. Forecasters warn that heavy rains and storm surge of 5 to 10 feet pose a major hazard to people in low-lying areas and along the coast.

NOAA/ National Weather Service

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NOAA/ National Weather Service

Parishes along the coast issued mandatory or voluntary evacuations this week, warning for flooding, high winds and other effects of the storm. On Tuesday, Iberia Parish also announced a curfew beginning at 11 a.m. CT on Wednesday and continuing through 7 a.m. Thursday.

A hurricane warning is in effect, meaning hurricane conditions are expected in the area, for a portion of the Louisiana coast from the border between Vermilion and Cameron parishes east to Grand Isle, south of New Orleans.

The New Orleans metropolitan area is under a hurricane warning, meaning hurricane conditions are possible within 24 hours. Rainfall amounts could range from 4 to 12 inches along the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coasts, which are also under storm surge warnings.

“The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast, near and east of the land attack site, where the tidal surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” the NHC said.

“Ensure all preparations are completed as quickly as possible!” said the National Weather Service office in New Orleans. said“Then prepare to hide and take shelter for the night!”

For anyone in the vicinity of the storm, affiliate station WWNO is providing ongoing coverage and a hurricane preparedness guide.

The forecast contains some welcome news

Hurricane Francine can be seen over the Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday morning. It is expected to make landfall on the Louisiana coast and quickly weaken — but it will also bring a serious flood threat.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-Eastward

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NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-Eastward

While the risks and dangers of the hurricane are significant, there are some welcome tidbits in the forecast. First, the hurricane is not expected to strengthen much before it reaches the coast. And as the hurricane approaches land, conditions are expected to “allow drier air to wrap around the southern portion of Francine as it approaches the coast. Therefore, the hurricane is not expected to strengthen until it reaches land,” the hurricane center said.

Forecasters also expect that the hurricane’s floodwaters will not threaten the levee system that is designed to limit the risk of damage from hurricanes and storms in Louisiana. However, the rising water level could reach the top of some local levees.

While some storms have done their worst damage by stalling for days and dumping torrential rain, Francine is expected to weaken quickly and move into Mississippi on Thursday. But meteorologists are also warning against complacency, citing the storm’s power and potential for dangerous flash flooding and urban flooding.

“We’re going to have to keep an eye on this one. It’s not going to be Laura, it’s not going to be Ida, but it’s still going to have a broad impact on the role of that storm as it rolls into south-central and southeastern Louisiana,” said state climatologist Jay Grymes.

President Biden declared a state of emergency in Louisiana on Tuesday, granting a request from Gov. Jeff Landry that will speed up the flow of aid and resources to the state.