Hurricane Francine is approaching landfall in central Louisiana and is expected to make landfall Wednesday afternoon or evening as a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 90 mph (145 km/h). Francine closed an eyewall overnight, allowing it to take advantage of record-warm ocean temperatures and intensify to a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 90 mph (145 km/h) at 2 a.m. EDT Wednesday. However, high wind shear is now affecting the hurricane and Francine is not expected to intensify further before making landfall.

Francine would become the third hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. in 2024, following Beryl, which hit Texas as a Category 1, and Debby, which hit Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 1. The record for most hurricanes to make landfall in the U.S. in a single year is six, last set in 2020.

Francine stabilizes in intensity

At 11:00 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Francine was located 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, and moving northeastward at 13 mph (20 kph), with sustained winds of 90 mph (150 kph) and a central pressure of 976 mb. The winds have not changed since 2:00 a.m. EDT Wednesday and the pressure has dropped only 1 mb, so Francine has remained the same intensity.

Satellite imagery and radar showed Francine was suffering from the effects of high wind shear of 20-30 knots. No eye was visible, the cloud pattern was stretched along the west-southwest to north-northeast axis of the strong upper-level winds impacting Francine, and the eyewall was incomplete on the southern side, where high wind shear was pushing dry air into the core of the storm.

On Wednesday morning, Francine brought sustained hurricane-force winds of 75-79 mph (121-127 kph) to two offshore oil platforms in the eyewall. These winds were at a height of about 150 feet (46 m) and were stronger than the standard winds one would measure at the surface (the standard height for surface wind measurements is 33 feet, or 10 meters).

Heavy rain from the storm hit the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts Wednesday morning, with rainfall typically ranging from 0.5-1 inch (12.7-25 mm).

Weather forecast for Francine

There is not much mystery left about Francine’s future. The hurricane is expected to make landfall on the central coast of Louisiana between 6 and 8 p.m. EDT today, with the center passing just west of New Orleans tonight. At landfall, Francine will likely be a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75-90 mph (121-145 km/h) and will rapidly weaken as it moves inland.

Winds

Damaging winds pose a major threat tonight, especially for areas of eastern central Louisiana, west of New Orleans and east of Lafayette. Morgan City (pop. 11,000) is at the greatest risk for wind damage and associated power outages. In its 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday forecast, the National Hurricane Center gave Morgan City a 36% chance of sustained hurricane-force winds of 74 mph (119 kph) or higher. These were the highest chances for any city on its list.

Storm surge

A storm surge of one to two feet (0.6-1.2 m) was already observed along much of the central and eastern Louisiana coast and the Mississippi coast Wednesday morning, leading to some minor coastal flooding during the morning high tide, according to NOAA’s Tides & Currents website. A much larger storm surge of five to 10 feet (1.5-3 m) is expected along the Louisiana coast late this afternoon and tonight, near and to the right of where the center makes landfall, leading to major flooding.

Fortunately, Francine is expected to make landfall around low tide: The National Hurricane Center’s forecast from 11 a.m. EDT on Wednesday called for landfall around 7 p.m. Low tide at Amerada Pass in central Louisiana is at 5:30 p.m. EDT (9:30 p.m.) on Wednesday afternoon, and high tide is early Thursday morning at 3:30 a.m. EDT (7:30 a.m.). The difference in water level between high and low tide is about 1.5 feet (0.5 m), so Francine’s highest tides at the coast will be a foot or more lower than they would have been had the hurricane made landfall around high tide.

The Louisiana coast is one of the most vulnerable locations in the world to high storm surges because of the large amount of shallow water off the coast. Francine’s angle of approach to the coast – from the south-southwest – makes it less of a storm surge threat to New Orleans than a storm approaching from the south or southeast.

Rainfall

Inland flooding from the heavy rainfall of four to six inches in Francine poses a significant threat from the storm. The National Weather Service has placed much of eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi in its “moderate” flash flood risk zone, meaning the chance of flash flooding in this region is 40 percent.

An analogous storm that Francine won’t be able to match: Hurricane Zeta of 2020

Hurricane Zeta made landfall in southeastern Louisiana on October 28, 2020, as a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 115 mph (115 km/h). Zeta’s fast forward speed of 40 mph (64 km/h) allowed it to maintain hurricane-force winds farther inland than most hurricanes, and as the hurricane passed over New Orleans, it brought wind gusts of up to 94 mph (151 km/h). Zeta brought a peak storm surge of six to 10 feet (1.8–3 m) to the coast and dumped widespread rainfall amounts of four to eight inches (10–20 cm). The hurricane killed five people and caused $5.3 billion in damage, but was not considered impactful enough to warrant its name being retired.

Francine will not be as strong as Zeta and will travel over a less densely populated area, so its impact will likely be significantly less than Zeta’s.