Bond investors who have been desperately betting for years on the size of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in four years are now finding out whether they made the right call.

The market is fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday, when the U.S. central bank is expected to begin its rate-cutting cycle, with the possibility of a larger move seen as a coin toss. Treasuries have rallied on the decision, to climb for the fifth straight month, and short-term interest rates – which are most sensitive to Fed policy – ​​fell to their lowest level in two years.