It seems like autumn has just arrived, but winter is not that far away.

Meteorological winter starts in 44 days on December 1.

NOAA released its winter weather outlook this week, and many Alabamians are always wondering: Will we get snow this year?

While you can never say “never,” the outlook says the outlook is not in our favor.

The Climate Prediction Center predicts a decent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures and below-average precipitation – including the frozen kind – during the meteorological winter, which runs from December to the end of February.

The temperature outlook predicts a 50 to 60 percent chance that southern Alabama will have warmer than average temperatures during the winter months.

Central and most of north Alabama have slightly lower but still decent chances of a warmer winter: 40 to 50 percent, according to the forecast. (The temperature outlook is at the top of this post.)

However, that doesn’t mean there won’t be cold days.

Then there’s the precipitation outlook, which doesn’t look great for snow lovers either.

The forecast predicts a 40 to 50 percent chance of below-average precipitation for south Alabama and a 33-40 percent chance for central and part of north Alabama. According to the forecast, only the northernmost part of the state is favored due to equal chances of above-average or below-average precipitation.

That doesn’t mean no snow is a certainty, although it is already quite rare in Alabama. “The forecast does not predict seasonal snowfall, as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance,” NOAA said.

The reason for this warmer and drier winter forecast? It weighs heavily on the rise of La Nina.

According to NOAA, “La Nina conditions are expected to develop later this fall and generally lead to a more northerly storm track during the winter months, keeping the southern part of the country warmer and drier.”

Every La Nina is different, but here is an overview of some of the most common weather impacts during the winter:

However, La Nina is not yet active. The Climate Prediction Center expects this to happen anytime from now through November and last through the first quarter of 2025. A “La Nina watch” is currently in effect.

What about the rest of the United States this winter?

“This winter, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for the entire northern continental U.S., particularly in the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes region, along with northern and western Alaska. Meanwhile, drier than average conditions are expected in the Four Corners region from the southwest to the southeast, the Gulf Coast and the lower mid-Atlantic states.”

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the quarterly outlook monthly. The next update is scheduled for November 21st.