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Fed rate cut reflects worsening economy
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Fed rate cut reflects worsening economy

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point. The move brings the rate to an immediate range of 4.75% to 5%. The Fed also announced that more cuts are likely before the end of the year.

The combination suggests that the Fed is taking the threat of a U.S. economic slowdown seriously. It’s high time — in fact, it’s long overdue.

Many Americans are becoming increasingly selective about their spending.

Yes, on the surface, the U.S. economy appears to be doing “basically fine,” as Powell put it in his press conference today. The stock market is booming, and retail sales and consumer confidence remain solid. But beneath the surface, signs of trouble are mounting.

Credit card debt has risen over the past year. So have credit card delinquencies, which are now at their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Auto loan delinquencies have also increased. Unemployment, while still relatively low at 4.2%, is up nearly half a percentage point from a year ago. Payroll growth is slowing and the labor market is stagnant, particularly for white-collar workers.

As a result, many Americans, if not completely abandoning the YOLO attitude of recent years, are becoming increasingly choosy about their spending. While overall retail sales are slowly rising, restaurant sales are stagnating and the post-pandemic travel boom is waning, with hotels reporting weaker demand from vacationers. Aside from Taylor Swift, musicians have struggled to draw crowds. Even Jennifer Lopez canceled a planned tour this summer due to sagging sales. Other acts, particularly on the nostalgia circuit, have joined forces and given audiences two-for-one deals, ostensibly to increase their chances of filling seats. (Elvis Costello and Daryl Hall toured together this spring and summer. So did Rick Springfield and Richard Marx.)

That this would happen has been obvious for some time — the last of the pandemic savings ran out in March — but the Fed has casually prioritized the fight against inflation, even as it’s become increasingly clear that the battle against pandemic-era price hikes and profiteering has been all but won. The consumer price index last month came in at an annual rate of 2.6%, just a tad higher than its pre-pandemic level. Gasoline prices nationwide are averaging around $3.20 a gallon, down 50 cents from April, and some experts think the national average could fall below $3. Major retailers like Walmart and Target have slashed prices on thousands of items, so much so that they’ve squeezed traditionally lower-priced dollar stores.

The Biden administration has already begun cracking down on corporate rent-fixing scams, and Vice President Kamala Harris says she will continue that effort if elected. Last month, the Justice Department sued software company RealPage, alleging its rental management software gave landlords a backdoor to rig rents.

This is not an attempt to disrupt the election. It is something that should have happened months ago.

The inflation hurting American families the most right now is high interest rates — and the Fed’s rate cut could help. Credit card debt now carries an average interest rate of more than 20%, while generic cards are at a record high with an average annual rate of 30.45%, according to a recent Bankrate study. The Fed’s move Wednesday should bring those eye-watering rates down.

The same goes for housing costs: While mortgage rates are most closely tied to the yield on the 10-year Treasury note — which has already been falling as inflation slows — that number is also often influenced by the benchmark rate. The new cut will almost certainly make it easier for millions of Americans to find new homes.

Donald Trump and some of his Republican supporters will likely argue that this was a political decision by the Fed. Trump has said in the past that he believes interest rates are too high, but that making a decision so close to the presidential election is “something they shouldn’t be doing.”

Please. This is not an attempt to ruin the election. It’s something that should have happened months ago. Powell acknowledged as much, saying Fed officials “may have been able to cut earlier” if they had the economic knowledge they now have over the summer.

As for Trump, always remember: he’s only after one person — himself. That’s why he complains that interest rates need to be lowered and that inflation is at an all-time high in American history (as someone who lived through the 1970s, he should know that’s a lie). The sole purpose of this incoherent position is to make the case for his election.

Since 1977, the Federal Reserve has had a dual mandate: to balance and maximize price stability with maximum employment. It is finally back to both — and not a moment too soon.