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The Fed predicts it will cut interest rates by half a point this year
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The Fed predicts it will cut interest rates by half a point this year

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference after a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee to discuss interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., July 31, 2024.

Kevin Mohatt | Reuters

The Federal Reserve predicts it will cut interest rates another half point before the end of 2024. The central bank has two more policy meetings to make that happen.

The so-called dot plot indicated that 19 FOMC members, both voters and non-voters, see the benchmark fed funds rate at 4.4% by the end of this year, corresponding to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The Fed’s two remaining meetings for the year are scheduled for Nov. 6-7 and Dec. 17-18.

Through 2025, the central bank forecasts interest rates to reach 3.4%, implying another full percentage point of cuts. Through 2026, rates are expected to fall to 2.9% with another half-point cut.

“There’s nothing in the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) that suggests the committee is in a hurry to get this done,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference. “This is an evolving process over time.”

The central bank on Wednesday cut the federal interest rate to a range of 4.75%-5%, the first rate cut since the early days of the Covid pandemic.

Here are the Fed’s latest goals:

“The Committee has gained more confidence that inflation is moving towards 2 percent in a sustained manner and considers that the risks to the achievement of the employment and inflation objectives are broadly balanced,” the statement said after the meeting.

Fed officials raised their expected unemployment rate this year to 4.4%, from a forecast of 4% in the last update in June.

Meanwhile, they lowered the inflation outlook to 2.3% from 2.6%. As for core inflation, the committee lowered its forecast to 2.6%, a 0.2 percentage point reduction from June.

— CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed reporting.

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